A new poll has found that Gadi Eisenkot is likely to be best placed to become Israel’s next prime minister less than two weeks out from the Knesset elections.
The survey, carried out by Zman Yisrael and the Times of Israel on Thursday, suggested that Eisenkot’s Yashar party had opened up a “big lead” on incumbent Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud.
Were the election to be held today, it found, Yashar would win 26 seats to Likud’s 20, making it the largest party in the Knesset.
Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad would come in a distant third with 11 seats, followed by Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, with nine.
The Arab Joint List, which was granted permission to run last week by the Supreme Court, plus both major Charedi parties – Shas and United Torah Judaism – would each take eight seats, as would Yair Golan’s Democrats’
The field would then be rounded out with the two far-right parties, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism, on seven and six respectively, Ra’am, which is separate from the Joint List, with five and the Reservists on 4.
The poll surveyed a sample of 500 people and comes with a sizeable 4.4 per cent margin of error.
However, if correct, it would mean that despite Eisenkot’s win, neither of the predicted coalition blocks would be able to form a majority government on its own.
The so-called anti-Netanyahu bloc, made up of Yashar, Beyachad, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Democrats, would be the largest with 54 seats, leaving it seven short of the 61 needed for a majority.
Conversely, the pro-Netanyahu block of Likud, the far-right and the Charedim would win 49 seats.
In a blow to Netanyahu’s hopes, the People of Israel, led by Ofer Winter, a former IDF general who has said he would only participate in a Netanyahu-led government, is not projected to meet the threshold required to enter the Knesset.
Nor is the Blue and White party of Benny Gantz, once Netanyahu’s main electoral rival, which twice previously entered a unity government with Likud.
Such an outcome would set the stage for the Arab parties and the Reservists to play the role of kingmaker, with their collective 17 seats enough to push either block over the top.
However, the integration of the Arab parties into either bloc could prove troublesome, with the far-right parties on one side and Yisrael Beiteinu on the other both refusing to participate in any coalition involving them.
Meanwhile, in an unexpected outburst against his ally on Friday, Lieberman accused Eisenkot of planning to form a government with sections of the Netanyahu bloc.
Dubbing Eisenkot “Gantz two”, he claimed: “Gadi Eisenkot is planning the day after the election, and what interests him isn’t being the biggest party in the bloc, but being bigger than Likud and arriving in a position of power in the negotiations to form a government with Netanyahu.”
Eisenkot has previously ruled out entering into any coalition agreement with Netanyahu.
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