On October 27, Israelis will head to the polls to vote in what is arguably the most important election in the country’s history.
It is also set to be one of the tightest, with the rise of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, the relative decline of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s Beyachad and the potential disqualification of all the Arab parties setting the stage for an extremely tense contest.
So who is likely to come out on top? The JC has averaged the latest poll results from each of Israel’s three major networks – Channels 11, 12 and 13 – to provide a definitive guide on who’s up and who’s down.
Our interactive poll tracker shows the average number of seats each party is projected to win across the three networks’ surveys, taking data from the last poll of each month.
Incumbent Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud faction started the race ahead in April, but has shown a steady decline since and was overtaken by Yashar in July.
Likewise, Beyachad, which emerged from the union of Bennett’s backers with Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, started as a contender to win office, but has tailed off since the announcement of its slate.
The left-wing Democrats could play a key role in building an anti-Netanyahu bloc with their projected ten seats while, to stay in power, the PM may have to once again rely on his coalition ‘frenemies’ from the Charedim and the far-right. That Faustian pact nearly brought down his last administration when the issue of Charedi conscription reared its head.
The Arab Joint List, should it be allowed by the High Court to run, could be a kingmaker, as it was in 2022 for Lapid, with seven projected seats.
Below, you can see how the Knesset would look if the election were held tomorrow, based on last month’s final polling.
Meanwhile, you can also read our explainers on how the Israeli voting system works and how the Knesset differs from other parliaments around the world, or Ashley Perry’s op-ed on the importance of the Bennett-Lapid tie-up.
And make sure to stay tuned to our Israeli election homepage, where the JC will bring you all the latest news and sharpest analysis, as well as profiles of party leaders, explainers on the key issues, and much more.
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