As 5779 drew to an end, Israel remained in political deadlock: Benjamin Netanyahu is still the caretaker prime minister without a majority, while his challenger Benny Gantz has no majority of his own to form a new government.
President Reuven Rivlin, who held consultations with the parties of the new Knesset earlier this week, tried to cajole the two men into agreeing to a power-sharing national unity coalition.
But the dilemma remains: though the presidentdecided on Wednesday evening to give Mr Netanyahu the mandate to try and form a government, the prime minister is unlikely to succeed in the 28-day period allowed by law. Neither will a possible 14-day extension help.
Precedent dictates that the candidate with larger number of endorsements gets the nod first.
This is Mr Netanyahu: he received 55 endorsements, one more than Mr Gantz on 54, after Yisrael Beitenu and Balad (part of the Joint List of Israeli Arab parties) decided not to endorse either candidate for now.
As it stands, Mr Netanyahu is not expected to gain more support for a new government led by him, and remains six MKs short of a majority.
Mr Rivlin’s calculation is further complicated by the fact that next Wednesday, two days after Rosh Hashanah, Mr Netanyahu’s lawyers will arrive at the attorney general’s office to begin pre-trial hearings in the prime minister’s multiple corruption cases.
One of the greatest obstacles to forming a national unity government is the repeated commitment of Mr Gantz’s Blue & White party not to serve under a prime minister facing criminal indictments.
Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit could possibly hold the keys to extricating Israel from this mess. He is now expected to deliver his final decision on indictments at some point in November. If he were to drop the charges against Mr Netanyahu, a national unity government would become a much more simple proposition.
But if, as widely accepted, the charges remain and the indictment becomes final, the opposition’s refusal to serve under Mr Netanyahu will harden, even though Likud and at least some of its allies will continue to insist that he can remain prime minister until convicted in court.
One proposal raised in the negotiations this week between Likud and Blue & White, at Mr Rivlin’s behest, was for the two parties to agree to a similar framework as that signed by Yitzhak Shamir and Shimon Peres in 1984 — a national-unity government with a rotating prime ministership.
But the obstacle in such a case would be who would go first.
Likud demands Mr Netanyahu remain prime minister, heading the new government for a period until he is replaced by Mr Gantz. This, for now, is a deal-breaker.
This weekend marks nine months since the Knesset was dissolved on December 26, 2018. Nine months which have been consumed by two election campaigns and an abortive process of coalition building. For all practical political purposes, the last year was a wasted one for Israel.
As 5780 dawns, the prospects for any change and a way out of the deadlock are dim. Talk of a possible third election no longer sounds outlandish and another wasted year beckons.
