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Rebooted Israel-Turkey ties down to diminished Erdogan

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June 30, 2016 11:07

The restoration of full diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey this week begs the question: how did two nations, which not that long ago were strategic allies and had all the makings of natural partners, ever reach this point?

The prevailing view in the Israeli diplomatic and security establishments is that there is one main figure to blame - President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Mr Erdogan was prepared to sacrifice his country's trusted alliances - not just with Israel but with the United States and other Western countries - for his aspiration to become a 21st century sultan and don the mantle of the Muslim world's leading statesman and protector.

While Mr Erdogan's predecessors in Ankara were wary in their dealings with Arab nations, preferring to balance their links to their co-religionists with membership of Nato and military cooperation with Israel, his conservative-Muslim AK Party changed tack.

The rise of Hamas in Gaza, the Muslim Brotherhood's short rule in Egypt and other developments in what was once optimistically called the Arab Spring led Mr Erdogan to believe that he could become the patron of like-minded Arab regimes. But the upheaval in the region, growing Iranian influence, the emergence of Daesh, political unrest at home and an economic downturn have all frustrated his plans.

Tuesday evening's attack on Istanbul's Ataturk Airport, which killed over 40 people, was a reminder of just how difficult Turkey's situation is right now.

Could Israel's politicians have done more to try and accommodate Mr Erdogan and safeguard the relationship? Views are divided on this. Some Turkey-watchers, who remember how as Istanbul mayor Mr Erdogan worked closely with Israeli officials on disaster relief during the 1999 earthquake, believe that Israel could have tried to cooperate with him over Gaza. They suggest that both could have then avoided the crisis in relations and perhaps also prevented outbreaks of violence in Gaza.

Critics of Israeli policy on Turkey also point to the episode when deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon pointedly seated a Turkish diplomat in a low chair as not being entirely helpful. But the prevailing view is that the Turkish president has an inherent hostility to Israel - perhaps also towards Jews - and that as long as he heads the country, the intimacy of the once-strategic relationship will not be recreated.

On the plus side for Israel, the period of tension with Turkey boosted its ties with its other regional rivals - Greece, Cyprus and Egypt. Ultimately, though, both sides relinquished the main demands and signed the agreement. Trade between the two countries doubled over the past six years and Turkey, at least when there is no terror warning, has remained a favourite destination for Israeli holiday-makers. Despite the politicians' failings, the nations remain partners.

June 30, 2016 11:07

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