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In April they called him ‘the magician’. Now the spell of Benjamin Netanyahu is broken

Five months after he conjured a striking victory despite dismal opinion polls, Israel’s PM loses the rerun election he need not have called

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September 19, 2019 14:14
 
 
ELECTION
AFTERMATH

Despite his stunning failure to win a majority for his coalition in Tuesday’s election, Benjamin Netanyahu still has his three titles: prime minister, defence minister and Likud leader.

He was wearing the third of those hats on Wednesday afternoon when he met Likud’s ministers and MKs to discuss what to do now.

They had a surprising order from Mr Netanyahu waiting for them. The election campaign is not over, he told them. They must coordinate every interview and every press statement with his staff.

As far as he is concerned, Likud did not lose the election and he has every intention of remaining in office. What’s more, if things do not work out as planned, he is prepared to plunge Israel into yet another election — the third in less than a year.

“Campaign discipline must be kept,” he said.

Following Mr Netanyahu, Likud’s chief political negotiator spoke to the MKs. Tourism Minister Yariv Levin, who will be handling the forthcoming coalition talks, said there are now three possibilities.

First, “someone on the other side will break ranks and help us to form a government,” he told them.

Second, Blue & White, now the largest party, could agree to form a government with Likud and its allies — including the Strictly Orthodox parties that Benny Gantz has previously said could not join his “secular national unity coalition.”

Or there was a third option: another election.

Some of those present had to pinch themselves to make sure they were not imagining what they were hearing.

They had just emerged from the nightmare of a summer campaign and now they were being told they may have to go through it all again in a couple of months.

Is the threat of a third election real?

It is useful for Mr Netanyahu to give the impression that it is, as one more bit of pressure on Mr Gantz to capitulate and agree to sit with him and his allies in a coalition they will effectively control.

But even an objective view of the new political landscape yields the conclusion that nothing much has changed since April’s election.

Neither party leader has a majority or a clear path to a coalition. By law, the period in which a prospective prime minister can form a coalition is limited.

Even if this time he is unlikely to get the Knesset to vote to dissolve itself, what is to stop Mr Netanyahu running down the coalition-building clock and forcing yet another election?

Israel has been on an election footing since last December when the twentieth Knesset was dissolved.

Just before this week’s election there were jokes that Israel has been through a pregnancy and is finally about to discover what the baby looks like.

Now it seems the pregnancy is about to go far beyond the due date.

A third election would mean that the caretaker government remains in place and, with it, the caretaker prime minister — which suits Mr Netanyahu.

With nearly all the votes counted, there are around 65 MKs in parties opposed to him remaining in office — a clear majority from the nation to remove the prime minister.

But unlike the 55 members of the Netanyahu minority who are coordinated and working together to deny Mr Gantz his government, the anti-Netanyahu majority includes the Jewish nationalists of Yisrael Beiteinu alongside the Arab communists and Islamists of the Joint List. They will not join the same government.

Most will not even say hello to each other when they cross paths in the Knesset lobbies.

Mr Gantz has committed himself not to be in government with Mr Netanyahu as long as the Likud leader faces criminal charges.

Meanwhile, Mr Netanyahu will not be dislodged from the prime minister’s office because if he were a mere minister he would have to resign immediately once indicted. They are two immovable objects.

Privately, senior Likud members admit a third election would be catastrophic for the country and that Mr Netanyahu should resign so he can deal with his legal issues. But none are prepared to say that openly.

Without Likudniks, Mr Gantz will not have a coalition. For now, the Likudniks come with Benjamin Netanyahu.

There is one potential game changer and that is the prime minister’s court appearance on October 2. Once it is over, the attorney general can indict him, provided Avichai Mandelblit can change the habit of a lifetime and make a momentous decision quickly.

The timing could be perfect. Once indicted, Mr Netanyahu will come under intense pressure to resign.

He will probably resist but the High Court will be petitioned to intervene — and likely rule that an indicted serving prime minster is unconstitutional.

Now that Benjamin Netanyahu has clearly lost the election and the confidence of the public it will be much more difficult to claim that the High Court is interfering in politics and contradicting the will of the voters.

This unorthodox combination of political and legal forces could force Mr Netanyahu out of office and open the way to Likud joining a Gantz government.

It could all be decided in the week between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur — when all of us are up for judgement.

September 19, 2019 14:14

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