If there is one issue that could change the political map of Israel, it is anger at Benjamin Netanyahu caving in to the Charedim - again. Last week the Charedi parties demanded that maintenance work on the train network should not be carried out on Shabbat, when such work is regularly carried out, as the trains do not run on Shabbat.
To preserve his coalition, Netanyahu bowed to their demand and an estimated quarter-of-a-million Israeli commuters were subject to serious delays and disruptions the following day.
Polls indicated that most Israelis blamed Netanyahu and support for the Likud declined, as the centrist Yesh Atid overtook it as the most popular political party.
This is about far more than making the trains run on time. Integrating the Charedim represents one of the most fateful strategic challenges facing the state of Israel. Currently, about 10 per cent of all Israelis are Charedi. This figure is projected to double over the next 20 years, reaching 40 per cent by 2059. Even if these figures turn out to be overblown in practice due to lower birthrates and drop-outs, the overall trend is undeniable.
In purely economic terms, this represents a huge issue. Charedim receive a disproportionately high share of welfare payments, while paying a disproportionately low share of tax. Charedi men have far lower levels of employment. Charedim also have far lower levels of educational attainment - which is critical for the Israeli economy that relies on the quality of its human capital.
Integrating the Charedim is a strategic challenge
Then there is the fact that few Charedim serve in the IDF. While the army is not short of recruits, this issue has long made many Israelis very angry because the burden of army service is not being shared fairly. No one wants to be a "fryer" (Israeli slang for "mug"), especially when it's your life on the line. Moreover, for a country that relies on "the best and the brightest" serving in the IDF, damaging the ethos of public service is a serious problem.
In recent years, there have been many valuable initiatives to improve matters, some of them coming from within the Charedi community itself. However, there are Charedi politicians, lobbyists and rabbis who oppose change either for ideological reasons or because it will diminish their power. Consequently, it took a determined effort by the previous Netanyahu government to confront the issue.
They were able to do so because Yesh Atid, together with the religious-Zionist Jewish Home party, had the necessary political clout to make the issue a priority. Particularly symbolic were two laws. The first made state funding for schools conditional on teaching at least 10 hours a week of general studies. The second introduced annual quotas for Charedi conscription, a by-product of which made it easier for Charedim to enter the work-force at an earlier age.
The results were positive. In 2015 more than 2,000 Charedim were drafted into the IDF, almost a tenfold increase from 2007. In 2003, under a third of Charedi men were employed, today it is over half. In the past five years, their enrolment in higher education has increased by over 80 per cent.
Nonetheless, there is still a long way to go. The employment rate for Charedi men is still nearly 40 per cent lower than for non-Charedi men. And, while Adina Bar-Shalom, a leading Charedi moderniser, , almost got selected to be the first woman candidate for a Haredi party, she didn't quite make it.
In fact, the delicate process of restructuring is under threat from a political backlash. The current government, which includes the Charedi parties but excludes Yesh Atid, has reversed direction. It has made the implementation of key elements of the aforementioned laws relating to education and conscription a matter of ministerial discretion rather than mandatory.
A government that depends on the support of the Charedi parties is highly unlikely to use its discretion in a way that leads to its own collapse. Turkeys, especially glatt kosher turkeys, do not vote for Christmas.
Worse, the government has decreed that local authority jobs that previously required applicants to have an academic degree will now be open to candidates who have studied in yeshivah for six years and passed three tests set by the chief rabbinate.
In the end it comes down to politics. Netanyahu does not want to do anything that might weaken the Charedi parties' preference for the right-wing, whose support gives them a structural advantage over the left and centre in being able to form a governing coalition. The only way to change such political calculations is by taking the express train to the ballot box.
