When Israelis vote next month, a new centre-right party, this time called New Hope, will try to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Unless there is a major change in the election landscape in the next weeks, Mr Netanyahu looks likely to extend his decade-long rule once again. He has outplayed a variety of challenges who have tried over the last half dozen elections to cobble together a centrist coalition. While Israel has remained largely at peace and economically successful, the trend of a fading left wing and eroding center may not bode well.
An Israeli poll released on February 10 showed that Israel’s left-wing Meretz party may not enter the Knesset, a dismal fall from grace for a party that once played a key role on the left. Similarly Israel’s Labour Party has declined to only seven seats. The party that ruled Israel for its first thirty years is barely able to make the electoral threshold and could get seven seats in the 120-member Knesset.
The real story of Israel’s electoral politics is that the country is endlessly seeking a centrist to unseat Mr Netanyahu but it has been let down by the parties that are put forward.
Benny Gantz, who ran in three elections against Mr Netanyahu in 2019 and 2020, even received more votes, securing 32 seats to Likud’s 32 in September 2019, but he couldn’t form a government. His colleagues have now almost all deserted him and his Blue and White party may not make it into the next Knesset. It will join a series of fat centrist parties that beached themselves like whales over the years. Kadima, a breakaway from Likud, beat Mr Netanyahu in 2009 but also failed to form a government under then leader Tzipi Livni. The Shinui party of Yosef Lapid once had 15 seats in 2003 and has disappeared.
Other centrist parties have failed. The Zionist Union, led by Labour leader Isaac Herzog, was predicted to win the 2015 election but only got 24 seats. It no longer exists. Yesh Atid, which is run by Yair Lapid, son of Yosef Lapid, has offered a centrist choice to voters for years and is now polling at 18 seats.
This election includes a series of party leaders who were formerly in Likud. Gideon Sa’ar’s recently created New Hope was formed by the former Likud member. Naftali Bennett, leader of Yamina, is a former chief of staff to Mr Netanyahu. Avigdor Liberman was also once a Likud member and has run his own party for years. For outsiders this word-salad of parties and leaders can be confusing. What matters is three basic problems.
First, Israel’s centre-right is fragmented but with the ultra-Orthodox parties it is predicted to get up to 80 seats in the Knesset.
Second, the historic left barely makes it into the Knesset and the centrists fight over 30 seats. Arab voters generally vote for one of three small parties and a former communist party on the far-left.
Third, the decline of traditional large left and right parties means that many parties are essentially one-hit-wonders led by a male personality with no internal primaries. They come and go, leaving voters without institutions or a say in who leads them.
In the long term this has eroded trust in many of Israel’s institutions, except the armed forces. Democracies tend to thrive on strong institutions and it is important for young people to experience democracy first-hand through primaries and campaigns, to feel a part of the system. Israel’s politics doesn’t offer this to young people these days.
This election campaign once again proves how weak Israel’s centrists are at creating party infrastructure.
This has led them to be outfoxed by Mr Netanyahu. However, leaders don’t last forever and Israel will need to prepare for a post-Netanyahu era eventually.
When that happens it may be lacking real, robust, alternative parties.
