Earlier this week, Dr Halil Shikaki, Director of the Ramallah-based Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, addressed the Jerusalem Press Club.
Dr Shikaki, who has been polling Palestinian public opinion since 1993, shared with the journalists the findings of three polls he had conducted since the end of the war in Gaza.
Dr Shikaki spoke softly, but his message was scary.
He found that for Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, the last Gaza war ended with a victory for Hamas, and that, as a result, the terror movement and its approach of armed resistance had become much more popular.
According to his survey, for the first time since 2006, Hamas has enough support to win elections if they were to take place today.
Conditions like those that existed in 2000 are in place
He also found that West Bank residents are increasingly backing Hamas's approach. Among those surveyed, 86 per cent supported the firing of rockets from Gaza if the siege and blockade are not lifted, and 53 per cent believed that armed confrontation was the most effective means to establish a Palestinian state. Only 22 per cent believed that talks were the best path.
Does this mean we are facing another intifada? Dr Shikaki, ever the cautious academic, refused to speculate.
However, he told us about a poll he had conducted in the summer of 2000. This was immediately after the failure of the talks in Camp David and the unilateral Israeli pullout from Lebanon. For the Palestinians, these events signified that the political-diplomatic avenue was leading nowhere: for them, it was Hizbollah's armed struggle that had kicked Israel off Arab land. It took Ariel Sharon's trip to Temple Mount to spark the Second Intifada.
Dr Shikaki reminded us that two equivalent prerequisites are in place today: the collapse of US Secretary of State John Kerry's peace efforts, and the war in Gaza, perceived by the Palestinians as a Hamas victory.
According to his recent polls, more than 80 per cent of Palestinians believe that Israel aims to harm the Muslin sites on Temple Mount and that this "extreme worry about Israel's agenda for al Haram al Sharif drives greater support for violence".
The Israeli leadership should be taking action to dismantle this ticking bomb. The way to do it is to use the Arab League peace initiative of 2002 to initiate a regional tie-up with Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and others who are worried by Islamic State and Iran. Together, we could lead the Palestinians - by persuasion or coercion - towards reconciliation with Israel.
Alas, on the same day that Dr Shikaki spoke at the Press Club, the Israel Democracy Institute issued a survey showing that a majority of Israelis have lost confidence in their political leaders. Perhaps the coming elections will produce a leadership that will be able to look at Dr Shikaki's findings not only as threats, but also as opportunities.
