Jonathan Spyer

Latest from Jonathan Spyer

Lebanon can negotiate with Israel – but it cannot control Hezbollah

US-brokered diplomacy rests on the hope that Beirut can impose authority over an Iran-backed militia it lacks both the will and the power to confront

3 min read

Lebanese army deploys to pilot zones outlined in a deal with Israel to disarm Hezbollah on July 21, 2026. (Image: Getty Images)

An Israeli Merkava tank sits in the town of Blida, Lebanon, on February 2, 2025 (Image: Getty Images)

How Beirut signed a deal legitimising Israeli military presence on Lebanese soil

3 min read

US President Donald Trump during a meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House (Image: Getty Images)

Why the emerging US-Iran deal is bad news for Israel

3 min read

People seek shelter underground from Iranian missiles, June 8, 2026, Tel Aviv, Israel. (Images: Getty Images)

Why Iran is escalating against Israel to protect its ‘Resistance Axis’

4 min read

Inside Israel’s buffer zone in Lebanon shielding border communities from Hezbollah

The emergent shape of Jerusalem’s security doctrine and perhaps of the next strategic chapter in the Middle East is better viewed from the ruins of Ait a Shaab than from the diplomatic halls of Washington

4 min read

April 20, 2026 16:57

A portrait of a Hezbollah fighter amidst the rubble of a building damaged by an Israeli air-strike in Beirut's suburb of Dahieh, on April 20, 2026. (Image: Getty)

Trump vs Islamic Republic: Who controls the escalation ladder?

Given the yawning gap between US and Iranian positions, it is difficult to see how talks could bear fruit. Breaking Iran’s de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz will therefore likely require US action

3 min read

March 25, 2026 10:21

US President Donald Trump and US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth (L) take questions on Iran (Image: Getty)

Beirut-Jerusalem peace talks plans rest on an old fiction: Lebanese sovereignty

The initiative ignores the likelihood – indeed the certainty – that Hezbollah will refuse to disarm and seems designed to head off decisive Israeli action to push Iran’s proxy north

3 min read

March 18, 2026 10:00

Israeli army tanks deploy near the border with Lebanon (Image: Getty)

Why the Islamic Republic may survive this campaign

What could change this picture is a joint US-Israeli long-war strategy to bring down the Iranian regime by supporting both armed and civilian opposition on the ground

3 min read

March 11, 2026 14:03

A regime rally in Tehran on March 9 marking the appointment of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in joint US and Israeli strikes. (Image: Getty)

The West stays silent as its Kurdish allies face attacks by Syria’s ‘reformed’ Islamist government

Without pressure, we may see the wholesale destruction of the forces and the authority that paid the highest price to defeat ISIS. It is also likely to result in the freeing of thousands of jailed jihadis

3 min read

January 21, 2026 17:31

Kurds fleeing a government advance arrive in the Kurdish Syrian city of Qamishli on January 19, 2026. (Image: Getty)

Playing arsonist and firefighter: How the West is falling for Qatar’s deadly game

While harbouring and funding Hamas and spreading the Muslim Brotherhood’s agenda, Qatar has styled itself as an ally and “mediator” – and European leaders are indulging the charade

4 min read

September 16, 2025 15:22

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer (L) and Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani (R) (Image: Getty)

As Iranian power recedes, Turkey and its Sunni allies are filling the vacuum

2025 could be a year of tremendous uncertainty in the Middle East

3 min read

January 8, 2025 12:32

As Iranian power recedes, Turkey and its Sunni allies are filling the vacuum

What is happening in Syria is a microcosm of the dynamics of the Middle East

No one should have been surprised by the clash of rival ethno-sectarian forces, supported by powerful states, because that is how power is wielded across the region

3 min read

December 5, 2024 10:49

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) fighters move past abandoned Syrian army military equipment and vehicles, as they reach al-Safirah town southeast of Aleppo city on December 3 (Getty Images)

By avoiding confrontation with Iran and its proxies the West is stoking up further aggression

The failure to grasp this basic fact has enabled unprecedented Houthi success – with no sign of change

4 min read

September 12, 2024 11:01

Houthis take part in a pro-Palestinian rally in Sanaa amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip (Photo by MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP via Getty Images)

Why Israel must hit Iran

Demands that Israel stays its hand in responding to Tehran ignores the importance of identifying a slowly building threat, then taking determined action against it

3 min read

April 16, 2024 16:34

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (HASSAN AMMAR/AFP via Getty Images)

‘Our president’s Jewish... So what?’ say the fighters for a modern Ukraine

Security expert Jonathan Spyer discovers the real reason why soldiers are serving on the Donbas battlefields

3 min read

June 16, 2022 10:49

‘Our president’s Jewish... So what?’ say the fighters for a modern Ukraine

Why it's not so quiet on Israel's northern front

Key operations are part of the regional strategic contest underway between Israel and its allies and Iran

4 min read

February 8, 2021 09:09

Israeli troops are pictured during a military drill in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights on January 13, 2021. - Israeli night raids targeting arms depots and military positions in eastern Syria killed at least seven Syrian soldiers and 16 allied fighters, in the deadliest raids this year, a war monitor said. The Israeli air force carried out more than 18 strikes against multiple targets in an area stretching from the eastern town of Deir Ezzor to the Iraqi border, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. (Photo by JALAA MAREY / AFP) (Photo by JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)

1 2

Jonathan Spyer

Latest from Jonathan Spyer

Lebanon can negotiate with Israel – but it cannot control Hezbollah

How Beirut signed a deal legitimising Israeli military presence on Lebanese soil

Why the emerging US-Iran deal is bad news for Israel

Why Iran is escalating against Israel to protect its ‘Resistance Axis’

More from Jonathan Spyer

Inside Israel’s buffer zone in Lebanon shielding border communities from Hezbollah

Trump vs Islamic Republic: Who controls the escalation ladder?

Beirut-Jerusalem peace talks plans rest on an old fiction: Lebanese sovereignty

Why the Islamic Republic may survive this campaign

The West stays silent as its Kurdish allies face attacks by Syria’s ‘reformed’ Islamist government

Playing arsonist and firefighter: How the West is falling for Qatar’s deadly game

As Iranian power recedes, Turkey and its Sunni allies are filling the vacuum

What is happening in Syria is a microcosm of the dynamics of the Middle East

By avoiding confrontation with Iran and its proxies the West is stoking up further aggression

Why Israel must hit Iran

‘Our president’s Jewish... So what?’ say the fighters for a modern Ukraine

Why it's not so quiet on Israel's northern front