If the details now emerging regarding the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are accurate, then Washington appears to have conceded on a number of key Iranian demands. Such an outcome would significantly complicate Israel's security situation and raise serious questions about the strategic results of the war launched on February 28.
According to reports, the agreement is primarily intended to secure the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and the restoration of pre-war levels of maritime passage within 30 days. Other issues, such as the nuclear programme, are to be addressed during a 60-day negotiating period beginning on the day of signing, reportedly to take place in Switzerland on Friday, June 19.
The MoU also reportedly provides for an immediate cessation of hostilities, including in Lebanon. Israel has been fighting the Iranian proxy Hezbollah since the organisation resumed hostilities against Israel on March 1. It remains unclear whether the agreement will include US pressure on Israel to withdraw from territory captured in Lebanon since that date. Jerusalem has significantly expanded its de facto buffer zone in southern Lebanon, with IDF forces now controlling territory up to the Litani River.
On the nuclear issue, the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium remains unclear. However, several reports suggest that Tehran will be permitted to dilute this material on its own territory. Iran, for its part, reiterates its longstanding commitment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons.
In addition, $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds is to be released. The exact timetable for this process remains uncertain. Iran's state-linked Mehr news agency, which published an unconfirmed draft of the agreement, reported that half this amount would be unfrozen before negotiations begin, or at their outset.
Mehr also claimed that Iran's ballistic missile programme and the regime's support for proxy and client militias across the region will be excluded from the 60-day talks.
That is broadly what is currently known, though even these details remain unverified. But if the MoU ultimately resembles the agreement described in these reports, it would represent a significant achievement for Iran that should worry Jerusalem.
When the war was relaunched on February 28, it was accompanied by expressions of optimism regarding the rapid collapse of the Tehran regime. President Donald Trump declared to the Iranian people that "the hour of your freedom is at hand" and urged them, at the appropriate moment, to "take over your government".
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, outlining the aims of the war in a statement on February 28, said: "This murderous terrorist regime must not be allowed to arm itself with nuclear weapons that would enable it to threaten all of humanity. Our joint action will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands. The time has come for all segments of the people in Iran – the Persians, the Kurds, the Azeris, the Balochis and the Ahwazis – to rid themselves of the yoke of tyranny and bring about a free and peace-seeking Iran."
This has not happened.
The Iranian regime has suffered severe damage from US and Israeli aerial bombardment but it has not fallen and appears to be in no immediate danger of collapse. Indeed, the removal of the older generation of clerical leaders may have cleared the way for a new militant leadership cadre centred on senior figures in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in alliance with Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the slain Supreme Leader.
Iran has also lost a substantial portion of its ballistic missile arsenal, yet if the reported provisions of the MoU are accurate, Tehran will now be free to begin repairing that damage. Likewise, elements of its proxy network have been badly weakened during the war that has unfolded since October 7. But this damage appears tactical rather than strategic. With the exception of the Assad regime in Syria, which was overthrown by Sunni Islamist forces, none of Iran's regional proxies has been destroyed.
On a strategic level, Iran appears to have succeeded in shaping the course of events since the renewal of hostilities on February 28. It achieved this first by surviving the initial wave of attacks and then by seizing the Strait of Hormuz, effectively holding the global economy hostage. The subsequent US counter-blockade south of the Strait created a confrontation in which each side waited for the other to blink first.
The reported terms of the MoU suggest that this contest may now have produced a positive result for Tehran. The fact that the agreement appears largely to restore the status quo ante bellum indicates that, by seizing Hormuz, Iran raised the stakes beyond the point Washington was willing to match. From that moment, the United States appears to have been searching for an exit ramp – and now seems to have found one it considers acceptable.
The result is that Iran may now be free to rebuild its battered but intact structures of power – and to continue its project of support for Islamist forces across the region, and pursuit of the war intended to result in the destruction of Israel.
Israel is not helpless in this contest, of course, but the latest developments appear to suggest that it will need to rely on its own capacities and abilities rather than act with allies, in the next chapter of the long war that is now unfolding.
To get more from opinion, click here to sign up for our free Editor's Picks newsletter.