Israel playing nuanced game in Syria - The Jewish Chronicle

for the past four years, report after report has emerged attributing air strikes on Syrian military targets to Israel. The Israeli government has not acknowledged a single one - not even when the remnants of bombs with labels in Hebrew were found on the scene. However, Israeli officials have developed a way of taking indirect responsibility that - theoretically - serves the country's interests.

This week it was edifying to observe Israel's seemingly contradictory responses to reports of two separate attacks on Syrian missile bases in the Qalamoun mountains, near the border with Lebanon.

On Sunday evening, following the first strike which took place on Friday night, Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon said: "Iran continues to try to arm Hizbollah… they [Hizbollah] are aware of the red lines Israel has set and Israel has no intention of compromising on them. We will not allow high-grade weapons to be transferred to the terror organisations."

The next morning, however, as reports emerged of another attack at the same site, Israeli sources briefed the media that it had most likely been the work of one of the main Syrian rebel groups, Jabhat al-Nusra.

Without trying to work out the credibility of the various statements, what is clear is that Israel is trying to fine-tune its level of influence in Syria, keeping it somewhere between discreet deterrence and selective non-involvement. With the once-strong Syrian army in an advanced state of disintegration and its formerly fearsome arsenal of chemical weapons largely dismantled, Hizbollah is now the only significant enemy on Israel's borders. Israeli intelligence believes that the Lebanese Shiite movement already has around 100,000 missiles, some with a range covering all of Israel. The main concern now is to prevent Hizbollah obtaining components that can improve the accuracy of these missiles and perhaps enable them to carry a chemical warhead.

Even if Hizbollah obtained these capabilities, it is unlikely that they would use them any time soon. Since the Second Lebanon War nearly nine years ago, the terrorist movement has rarely carried out any overtly offensive operations against Israel. It is anxious to avoid another devastating blow against Lebanon and, for now, is probably too preoccupied with propping up the Assad regime, together with Iran's Qod Force, to divert its attention to an escalation with Israel.

Syrian regime forces seem to have lost several key strongholds to the rebels in recent weeks and, as a result, Hizbollah's involvement in Syria is likely to intensify. The discovery last week of a landing strip in Lebanon from which Hizbollah operates Iran-made drones was just another sign of how the terror group is preparing for a long-term struggle for dominance in Syria, even after the regime is toppled.

Meanwhile, Hizbollah seems to be trying to hurt Israel through its proxies. On Sunday night, four men were detected trying to lay explosives on the Golan border and were killed in another air strike. They were members of a Druze terror cell. They failed to activate their bombs but their presence was proof that Hizbollah is trying to extract a price for Israel's regular interception of its arms shipments.

Israel is trying to highlight Iran's role in Syria - embodied by Hizbollah - but it is also anxious to prevent an escalation, while keeping its enemies in check.