Israel elections: Bibi’s right hook alliance with Lieberman

By joining the two main right-wing parties together, Bibi is staying a step ahead of them.

Mr Netanyahu’s other chief worry is his coalition partners doing too well. Confident that Mr Netanyahu is going to win anyway, religious and right-wing voters may prefer to vote for Shas, led once again by the charismatic ex-convict Aryeh Deri, or the national-religious joint list of Bayit Yehudi and National Union.

The day after the elections, Mr Netanyahu will have to negotiate with these parties, which will be eager for ministries and a say in the new government’s policies. He wants to do so from a position of strength, as head of a much larger party. He is also mindful that Mr Lieberman may be soon indicted for money-laundering and forced to resign, at least temporarily. Leaderless, the Yisrael Beiteinu Knesset members could become loose cannons. This way, Mr Netanyahu has a much better chance of keeping them within the fold.

But Mr Netanyahu and Mr Lieberman’s “October surprise” could end up backfiring on them. Pollsters have had little time to adjust their models and so far there are widely conflicting indications of how well the new Likud Beiteinu will actually do and whether it will gain more or less seats than the two parties currently control.

Also, the alliance may end up alienating two significant groups of Likud voters. The overtly secular identity and policies of Mr Lieberman’s party could push away traditional religious voters, while the moderate Likudniks, who see Mr Lieberman as anti-democratic, may consider a more centrist option.

Not only does the new alliance risk frightening away potential voters, it may just be what was needed to galvanise the centre-left and finally come around to co-operating in an anti-Bibi front.