Burnham has upped the anti-Israel rhetoric – but will his government act differently from Starmer’s?

“Many people feel that at the start of Israel's military action in Gaza, my party didn't get it right, and I am sorry about that,” he said in the clip.

This is not entirely unexpected.

The former mayor of Greater Manchester was one of the few Labour figures to call for a ceasefire in October 2023. He, and other figures including London mayor Sir Sadiq Khan, were denounced as irresponsible by Jewish communal figures.

A few months after that came the general election and, despite a humongous majority in Parliament, there were several losses and near losses in constituencies with a sizeable Muslim electorate.

Five MPs were elected to the British Parliament explicitly campaigning about the conflict in the Middle East and taking an unapologetically pro-Gaza stance.

And despite a parliamentary party to rival Tony Blair’s, in Labour circles there was, to quote one of Burnham’s favourite bands The Smiths, panic on the streets of London and panic on the streets of Birmingham.

Despite actions in government including deciding to recognise a Palestinian state while Hamas held hostages, a partial arms embargo on Israel, sanctions on Israeli ministers, restoration of funding to Palestinian UN agency Unrwa, despite accusations by Israel that staff of the organisation participated in atrocities on October 7, and a significant deterioration of relations between London and Jerusalem, Starmer hasn’t been able to shake the criticism, including from many of his own MPs, that he hasn’t done enough to support the Palestinians.

In the aftermath of October 7, the then-leader of the opposition said that Israel had a right to defend itself in a way a considerable number of Labour activists felt uncomfortable.

In an interview with radio station LBC on October 11, 2023, Starmer was challenged by host Nick Ferrari about whether he supported Israel cutting off water and electricity to Gaza. The Labour leader replied that Israel “has that right” – something frequently brought up by many of his left-wing critics.

If his aim was winning back Muslim and left-wing voters, then there is some early evidence of success.

His remarks were welcomed by the Palestinian ambassador to the UK. Labour MP Afzal Khan described them as a “Hugely important and welcome clarification”, while left-wing Labour MP Clive Lewis said there were an “important and much-needed first step”.

Some other left-wing parties were also had positive things to say, with Northern Irish MP Colum Eastwood, from the Social Democratic and Labour Party calling the move “An important departure from Starmer’s disastrous approach”.

But some of Starmer’s critics seem to think their attacks on the soon-to-be former prime minister will still be effective on his successor.

Many were quick to point out that, as in his campaign in Makerfield, he declined to call Israel’s actions in Gaza a “genocide”, though came pretty close, by saying “war crimes appear to have been committed”.

That wasn’t sufficient for former Labour MP Zarah Sultana: “You can’t even call it a genocide, you coward”, she posted on X.

“Can Burnham say that war crimes, let alone genocide, has occurred in Gaza? Being clear on this is the most basic first step. Without this, Labour hasn't even started its journey to rectifying for years of complicity and participation in this genocide”, chimed Green Party leader Zack Polanski.

While the rhetoric seems a lot more critical, the substantial policy elements in Burnham’s video were remarkably similar to the government’s current approach.

Even when he said that the government would consider sanctions “to ban trade in goods with illegal settlements”, that is pretty much what the government is already looking at.

Middle East Minister Hamish Falconer told the House of Commons’ Foreign Affairs Select Committee earlier this week: “We are in discussion with partners, including those few countries who have explored how a ban on settlement trade might work.

"We are looking at further concrete steps to counter settlement expansion and promote peace and security.”

The Conservatives will no doubt seek to exploit Burnham’s new positioning.

Last week, Nick Timothy, the shadow justice secretary, branded Burnham a coward for refusing to clearly state that Israel had not committed genocide in Gaza.

Former foreign minister Lord Goldsmith accused the next prime minister of being motivated solely by opportunism.

“He will always go the direction of the parade. That is his only guiding principle. If there’s a backlash he will switch sides. He cannot be relied upon to maintain a single policy position. It’s just not in his nature,, Goldsmith posted on X.

That Burnham has stuck to largely the same positions as Starmer’s government shouldn’t be taken for granted.

Louise Haigh, former transport secretary, and one of Burnham’s key backers, is an outspoken critic of Israel.

She told Parliament last year that “it is impossible to conclude that what is happening in Gaza is anything short of genocide”.

That Burnham appears not to be following her lines on Israel isn’t insignificant, though many in the Jewish community would regard it as the bare minimum.

One of Starmer’s allies joshed to me that Jewish communal figures might look back in anger at their approach to his two years in No10 Downing Street.

“AB's latest does make me wonder if the leading lights of the community will ever have the humility and self-awareness to acknowledge that we've just had basically the closest to a Jewish PM we're ever likely to get...and regret not supporting him more vocally,” said a senior Labour source who is Jewish.