With every day bringing new revelations in an alleged embezzlement scandal engulfing dozens of public officials, including senior Yisrael Beiteinu politicians, two questions are paramount.
First, did the party leader, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, know anything? Second, how will this affect the party’s prospects in the upcoming elections?
While the police are very careful not to mention Mr Lieberman’s name, the identity of the suspects questioned so far clearly indicate that the investigators are drawing a tight circle around the foreign minister. Deputy interior minister Faina Kirshenbaum, who was Mr Lieberman’s right-hand woman in running the party, and accountant Moshe Leon, one of his closest associates for nearly two decades and the man he tried to get elected as Jerusalem mayor in 2013, have both been questioned.
The money that was allegedly misappropriated went through ministries and departments controlled by Yisrael Beiteinu. Meanwhile, the party leader is known to exert tight control over his ministers. All this means that Mr Lieberman will himself have to face questions sooner or later.
Mr Lieberman has been in the sights of Israel’s law enforcement agencies for 15 years but so far they have failed to convict him in court. The sheer number of directions in which this case is going — and has been secretly going for over a year, with at least three state witnesses enlisted so far — indicates that this is precisely what the police intend to do.
Will it make a difference? After all, Mr Lieberman led Yisrael Beiteinu in four previous election campaigns with corruption and money-laundering allegations hovering over his head — and succeeded at the ballot box.
This year, however, may be different.
Initial polls carried out late last week after the investigation came to light were inconclusive. Mr Lieberman is doing badly, down to seven or eight seats in most polls — the party currently has 13 seats in the outgoing Knesset — but the slump began before the allegations.
Right-wing voters looking for an alternative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have a more attractive prospect in Naftali Bennett’s Habayit Hayehudi and at least part of the Russian-speaking constituency on which Yisrael Beiteinu relied now feels more Israeli and is looking elsewhere.
In an attempt to seek new voters, Mr Lieberman has been repositioning himself in recent interviews and public appearances as a centrist and a pragmatist who supports the two-state solution and wants to safeguard Israel’s ties with the EU.
He has also been looking at taking Yisrael Beiteinu into a new coalition without Mr Netanyahu and possibly including Labour, Meretz and Yesh Atid.
A new corruption case which taints his party and possibly himself will make it much harder to stake out new territory in the centre-ground.
