COUNTDOWN
Israel and the Palestinian Authority could find themselves holding election campaigns simultaneously in early 2020.
But unlike Israel, which will hold its third Knesset elections in less than a year, the Palestinians will be going to the polls for the first time in 14 years.
While Fatah, which rules the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank from Ramallah, and Hamas in Gaza have agreed in principle on holding the election next year, there are a number of obstacles remaining.
The last presidential election, in which Mahmoud Abbas was elected as successor to Yasser Arafat, was in 2005.
In 2006, Hamas won in the parliamentary election 74 out of the 132 seats on the Palestinian Legislative Council, however the PLC has barely functioned since then due to the tension between Fatah and Hamas, leading to the bloody coup in Gaza in 2007 when Hamas took over the coastal strip.
Since then, Mr Abbas has promised numerous times to hold elections in order to renew his mandate and establish a new parliament, but the two sides have been incapable of reaching an agreement on how and when to hold them.
But this time there are clearer signs that the election may actually be going ahead, including a number of meetings in Gaza between Hanna Nasser, the head of the Palestinian Authority’s election commission, and Hamas’s leadership.
So far, it has been reported that Hamas has agreed to make one key concession: to split the PLC election from the presidential one, holding them three months one after the other. Hamas had originally insisted they be held the same day to ensure that Mr Abbas either resigns or puts himself up for re-election.
The change in their stance is related to their fears that Fatah would either go ahead and hold the election in the West Bank only or, if no election is held, Mr Abbas would resign and another Fatah leader establish himself in power.
There has also been pressure from Egyptian mediators, who have been trying for years to broker both a reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas, as well as a long-term truce between Gaza and Israel.
Last week, it emerged that the Palestinian Authority had privately requested from the Israeli government that it allow voting to take place in East Jerusalem. This was a bone of contention in the previous election; however, under pressure from the United States, Israel agreed that the voting could take place in post offices, rather than in official polling stations.
It is unclear whether a similar compromise can be reached this time around, especially as the Netanyahu government, itself facing an election, would not want to be seen as making any concessions to Palestinians on its sovereignty in Jerusalem.
Since the Palestinians have cut off all diplomatic relations with the US following the Trump administration’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December 2017, there is no prospect of American pressure on Israel this time around.
The Palestinians may try to work through the Egyptians, though they are unlikely to be as insistent.
The crisis with Washington creates another problem: funding. Elections are not cheap to organise, and in the past the Americans have funded Palestinian elections. That will not be happening this time around.
The unlikelihood of Israel agreeing, at least not before its own election on March 2, to an election in east Jerusalem has given rise to speculation that Fatah, and Hamas as well, are eager for yet another excuse to postpone the election.
Mr Abbas, at 84, knows his chances of winning are slim, especially as the Fatah vote is likely to be split between him and his rivals within the movement, Muhammad Dahlan and the imprisoned Marwan Barghouti, so rather than leave the stage, he has an interest in postponing them.
Hamas chief Yihya Sinwar is eager to stake his claim as the next leader of the Palestinian people, but is aware that within Hamas, he is not yet powerful enough to impose himself as the candidate.
Israeli intransigence will be a useful excuse for all sides.