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With three weeks to go, Israel's political parties are jostling for alliances

A looming candidate registration deadline is causing a lot of noise, but not much agreement, our Jerusalem correspondent writes

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With less than three weeks until the deadline to register candidates for the next election, nearly all of Israel’s parties are circling each other warily, assessing the possibility of joining forces to maximise their chances.

While joint lists will help the various blocs gain seats, polling indicates that in the aftermath of the second election of 2019, there will still be a stalemate.

There are potentially ten parties — five on the centre-left and five on the right — engaged in talks with each other, with a view to merging their lists.

So far, the only ones to have signed an agreement are Jewish Home and National Union, the main components of the United Right List, which on Tuesday agreed to run in the same format as last election.

But the third party in that alliance, the Kahanist Jewish Power, has broken away, claiming the other two reneged on a deal that would have seen their member Itamar Ben-Gvir sworn in as a member of the Knesset, had the List’s other leaders Bezalel Smotrich and Rafi Peretz resigned their seats when they became ministers last month.

Further muddying the waters is Naftali Bennett’s New Right, which failed to pass the threshold in April, but is running again this time. Mr Bennett has expressed an interest in rejoining Jewish Home, which he left seven months ago, but the party is unlikely to give him a prominent spot on its list.

Another option for him is to join forces with the libertarian Zehut, which also failed to cross the threshold. Mr Bennett’s main ally, former justice minister Ayelet Shaked, has yet to announce if she is staying in New Right amid reports she may be offered a spot either on United Right List or in Likud.

On the centre-left, matters are even more chaotic. The newcomer Ehud Barak’s party was finally given a name  — Democratic Israel — but it is in talks with all three others: Labour, Meretz and Blue & White.

At this point, the least likely suitor seems to be Blue & White, whose leaders believe they have a chance of emerging the largest party in this election, without Mr Barak’s help, and are eager to avoid any impression of turning leftward.

Labour, Blue & White and Democratic Israel are all courting Gesher, a centrist party that failed to cross the threshold. Its leader Orly Levy-Abekasis, is still seen as a politician who can attract disaffected Likudniks.

Even the one political grouping that has already agreed in principle on running together — the four Arab parties — is stuck.

The leaders of Hadash, Ra’am, Balad and Ta’al announced two weeks ago that the they would be running under the Joint List banner they used in 2015 but disbanded ahead of the April election.

But the formal agreement has yet to be signed because the parties have not succeeded in allocating all the spots on the candidates lists between them.

Meanwhile, one party not planning to join any other is Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, who looks like he will remain the kingmaker after the election.

Mr Lieberman’s refusal to enter the coalition in May led to the Knesset’s dissolution and new elections. Since then he has promised to only an enter a national unity coalition with both Likud and Blue & White that excludes the Strictly Orthodox parties.

The position seems to have struck a chord with many voters: in the latest polls, Yisrael Beiteinu has nearly doubled its current tally of five seats. If the pattern in the polls hold, neither of the two largest parties will be able to form a coalition without Yisrael Beiteinu.

But a coalition including both parties seems unlikely at this point, with the leaders of Blue & White refusing to remove their veto on sitting in Mr Netanyahu’s government as long as he’s facing criminal indictments, while the prime minister is unlikely to resign unless forced to.

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