COUNTDOWN
Israel’s repeat election next month is creating unorthodox new alliances and rivalries.
The latest one comes in the form of a so-called “remainder votes agreement” struck between the main opposition Blue & White party and the nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu.
Such agreements, which are signed before an election, allow parties to pool surplus votes under Israel’s proportional representation system to win additional seats. These deals are usually made between parties from the same political bloc — the Charedi parties Shas and United Torah Judaism routinely make a pact to ensure Strictly Orthodox votes are not lost.
But the latest deal is a change of direction for Yisrael Beiteinu, which signed a remainders agreement with the like-minded New Right party before the last election.
New Right has since joined a separate bloc that will likely associate itself with Mr Netanyahu’s Likud, leading to the deal with Blue & White.
Yisrael Beiteinu said on Tuesday that the arrangement was “only a technical issue,” but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately accused the party’s leader Avigdor Lieberman “moving votes from the right to the left”.
Mr Lieberman was quick to respond: “Netanyahu has made a surrender deal with Hamas. I did a remainder votes deal with Blue & White. I think that’s preferable.”
But despite what Mr Lieberman’s party says, the agreement is not merely technical. The sharing of surplus votes will probably work to Blue & White’s advantage, because Israel’s system of proportional representation tends to favour the larger party. It is also a clear statement of intent to cooperate after the election in coalition.
Mr Lieberman has been deliberately coy over whether he would prefer Mr Netanyahu or Blue & White’s leader Benny Gantz as prime minister after the election, saying he will support that candidate who is prepared to form a “wide coalition” that includes Likud, Blue & White and Yisrael Beiteinu.
Since Mr Lieberman has also ruled out sitting in a coalition deal with the Strictly Orthodox parties, whom Mr Netanyahu regards as Likud’s “natural allies”, his preference seems to be Mr Gantz.
But the Yisrael Beiteinu leader private says that he is determined to end Mr Netanyahu’s long spell in office and that, if Likud once again fails to form a government, the party will eventually elect a new leader.
Every poll since the Knesset was prematurely dissolved on May 28 projects Likud losing seats to Yisrael Beiteinu, leaving Mr Netanyahu’s coalition of right-wing and religious parties between three and six members short of a majority.
But that is not Mr Netanyahu’s only worry on his right flank. He is convinced that some of the members of the United Right movement could also support a different candidate for prime minister, such as former ministers Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked.
Until a month ago, Ms Shaked was still hoping for a spot on the Likud candidates slate. This week, she denied a report in Haaretz that one of her intermediaries had promised Mr Netanyahu would not be prosecuted on corruption charges if Ms Shaked retained the post of Justice Minister.
Whatever actually transpired, it is clear Mr Netanyahu decided not to allow the popular Ms Shaked, who over a decade ago ran his office, to return to the fold. Ironically, Likud now is expected to sign its own remainders agreement with United Right.