ByAnshel Pfeffer, Anshel Pfeffer
An agreement on a long-term truce between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is in the works.
While a deal is still far from assured, the talks - in which former prime minister Tony Blair, as well as senior Turkish, Saudi and Qatari officials are involved - have been ongoing with Israel's informal blessing for at least a couple of months.
Officially, Israel is still denying that it is conducting direct or indirect negotiations with Hamas.
The main section of the agreement would be a gradual ending of Israel’s eight-year closure of the Gaza Strip, enabling freer passage of civilians and goods through the crossings to Israel and Egypt. The deal may also allow the construction of a Gaza port or the use of a nearby port in Cyprus or Egypt.
In exchange, Hamas will promise to enforce a long-term ceasefire with Israel and accept international supervision of goods entering Gaza.
Under any agreement, Hamas would have to commit to dismantling, or at least freezing, its rocket arsenal. It is unclear what undertakings Hamas would agree to on curbing its terror activities in the West Bank.
While the main issue in any agreement will be easing the blockade and limits on Hamas's armaments, Israel will demand that Hamas returns the remains of at least two soldiers killed in Gaza last summer (Hamas claims to be holding remains of a third soldier as well).
Another issue will be the destruction of the tunnels that Hamas continues to dig under the border with Israel. A 21-year-old Hamas operative arrested recently by the Shin Bet has revealed details of new excavation. Last summer the IDF destroyed over 30 attack tunnels, and Israeli intelligence believes that Hamas's military wing plans to use the tunnels to carry out widespread attacks in any future conflict.
An agreement with Israel would increase tensions between Hamas and its Palestinian rivals. Fatah has already denounced the Blair negotiations amid concern that its Palestinian Authority in Ramallah is becoming marginalised.
Within Gaza, Hamas has to contend with Salafist movements that have been launching rockets at Israel in recent months, and with Islamic Jihad, with which it currently cooperates but will likely retaliate against Israel should its the hunger-striking administrative detainee Mohammad Alaan die.