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Iran is rebuilding its stockpile of ballistic missiles and other key military capabilities far more quickly than Israel believed possible, it has been reported.
The assessment has shocked both IDF and Mossad officials, who had insisted that the US-Israeli campaign had set Iran’s military-industrial complex back by years.
Four months after the main fighting ended in April, Israeli officials now believe that Tehran has found “creative ways” to restore critical capabilities, even as much of the country’s broader military infrastructure remains severely damaged, according to the Jerusalem Post.
Israeli officials now believe that Iran has adopted a targeted approach to reconstruction, prioritising missile production and other strategic capabilities rather than attempting to restore its entire military-industrial base at once.
If Iran returns to manufacturing between 100 and 300 ballistic missiles per month, it could restore its arsenal to approximately June 2025 levels by early or mid-2027. It could then pose a potentially prohibitive threat by 2028, the Post reported.
Iran has also reportedly used bulldozers and other heavy equipment to reopen entrances to underground missile facilities that were blocked during the war, potentially providing access to an estimated 1,000 ballistic missiles. Satellite imagery showed that 50 of 69 tunnel entrances at 18 underground missile facilities had been cleared.
The US and Israel struck more than 2,600 missile and military-industrial targets during the approximately 40-day war, which began on February 28.
The damage to Iran’s military was estimated at approximately $300 billion.
Israeli officials are now concerned that Iran is both recovering surviving weapons and manufacturing new ones.
The IDF has not disclosed a current production figure, saying that specific estimates could expose intelligence sources and methods.
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