Israel is concerned that a war could break out on its northern border with Hezbollah.

Despite the Covid-19 pandemic and outbreaks in the IDF bases with thousands of infections, a large scale combat exercise simulating war on the Lebanon and Golan borders is to be held the week after next.

Lieutenant-General Aviv Kochavi, the IDF’s chief of staff, said this week that “we will hold the exercise event if the cost is a thousand infections.”

The three-day manoeuvres will include large live fire exercises with the tank and infantry brigades of the 162nd armoured division in the Galilee and on the Golan Heights, as well as a full-scale war-game of the IDF’s two main field corps, Northern Command and the General Staff. In addition to the regular and career soldiers taking part, thousands of reservists will be called up.

Most other large scale exercises scheduled this year have been cancelled due to the pandemic. The IDF is not just suffering thousands of infections, it has also seconded hundreds of soldiers and entire intelligence and Home Front units to the army’s Covid-dedicated Alon headquarters, which has undertaken missions including contact-tracing and running quarantine hotels. But Lt-Gen Kochavi has insisted that this exercise, simulating war breaking out with Hezbollah, take place.

The IDF’s intelligence assessment is that there is an increased possibility of war with Hezbollah in the coming months for a number of reasons. The most immediate is Hezbollah’s need to respond to the death of its members in an Israeli airstrike in Syria three months ago. According to Brigadier-General Dror Shalom, the outgoing commander of the research department of Israeli Military Intelligence, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is in a quandary. “He knows that there will be great anger towards Hezbollah in Lebanon if he drags the country in to a war with Israel and he’s looking for a way to retaliate without escalating.”

But Sheikh Nasrallah has other considerations as well. In Lebanon’s fragile situation, Hezbollah is increasingly being seen as a source of major corruption in government. He could be tempted to divert attention from these matters and make what Brigadier Shalom calls “a fatal mistake” by provoking a war with Israel. Hezbollah is also still working on its joint project with Iran’s Qods Force to upgrade the accuracy of thousands of Iranian-supplied missiles in its arsenals. The “accuracy project” was the brainchild of Qassem Soleimani, the Qods Force commander who was assassinate by the Americans in January.

Brigadier Shalom says that Nasrallah is aware Israel would see an assembly-line for missiles in Lebanon as a casus beli for a devastating attack by Israel. Nasrallah is still under pressure from the leaders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards––, who are trying to surround Israel with accurate missile launch-pads to go ahead with the project, but he has yet to make a final decision.