Israel
A third election in 2020 is now the ‘likeliest’ scenario, Likud minister says
The breakdown in coalition talks among Israel's political parties in now unprecedented
October 16, 2019 16:37
By, Anshel Pfeffer Jerusalem
1 min read
The breakdown in coalition talks among Israel's political parties in now unprecedented
October 16, 2019 16:37ByAnshel Pfeffer, Anshel Pfeffer Jerusalem
This breakdown in coalition talks is unprecedented in Israeli political history.
For over two weeks, there have been no talks — official or unofficial — between the parties on forming a new government. And while Benjamin Netanyahu originally was expected to return his mandate to form a government to the president earlier without using up the entire four weeks at his disposal, he is now expected to go back to the president only on Thursday, at the end of period.
There are two possible explanations for Mr Netanyahu’s change of tactics. Some in Likud believe that he never intended to return the mandate to begin with and that he just used it as spin in the hope that it would pressure Blue & White leader Benny Gantz to enter negotiations and agree to a Netanyahu-led national unity government.
Others insist that Mr Netanyahu was indeed trying to hurry proceedings along, in the hope of bringing about a third election before his likely indictment by the attorney-general.
“As crazy as this may sound,” one Likud minister said this week. “A third consecutive election is right now the likeliest outcome.”
But Mr Netanyahu is concerned that secret talks are going on behind his back and that the moment Mr Gantz receives the mandate, he will put a minority government in place.
In such a scenario, the new government would consist of Blue & White, Labour-Gesher and the Democratic Union. While such a government would only have 44 seats in the Knesset, 17 short of a majority, it could still be sworn in with the support of other parties, such as Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu, the Joint List, and even — so Mr Netanyahu fears — some rebels from within Likud.
Such a minority government would probably not last very long, but its main purpose would be to eject Mr Netanyahu from the prime minister’s office.
While there are no signs that such a government is afoot, the fear seems to be enough for Mr Netanyahu to cancel a planned visit to Japan, where he was to have attended the enthronement ceremony of the new Japanese emperor.
If there is no breakthrough by Thursday, Mr Netanyahu will still have the option to request an additional two weeks. But President Reuven Rivlin can decide not to grant that extension on the basis that there does not seem to be a prospect of him forming a coalition.
His next step will almost certainly be to hand the mandate to Mr Gantz, who will then have four weeks of his own to try. His chances seem slim now too, but it will be the first time in over a decade that anyone other than Mr Netanyahu will have had the opportunity to form a government.