Over the next few days we are going to hear much about “family voting” in the Gorton and Denton by-election. The result – a sensational win for the Greens – is one of the most seismic in political history.
It is indeed a deeply concerning result for anyone who values the norms of British democracy. Having previously been a fringe party focused on environmental issues, under Zack Polanski the Greens have morphed into the latest manifestation of the intellectually bizarre but politically useful – and wholly toxic – alliance between the hard left and antizionists in the Muslim community, an alliance which has previously driven the by-election successes of George Galloway.
The last general election saw the rise of sectarian voting as a significant trend with four so-called Gaza Independents elected, and many others on the cusp of victory. There are 37 constituencies with a Muslim population over 20 per cent, and in a further 73 seats the Muslim population is between 10 and 20 per cent. In the 2024 election Labour’s vote fell by over 14 per cent from 2019 in those constituencies where the Muslim population was above 15 per cent. Gorton and Denton falls squarely into that band – and was rife for exploitation by the new-look Greens. The only difference from the wins by Gaza Independents in 2024 is that this time sectarian voting was directed into support for the Greens.
Immediately after voting closed, Democracy Volunteers (the monitoring group given access by the Electoral Commission to polling stations) issued a statement:
“Today we have seen concerningly high levels of family voting in Gorton and Denton. Based on our assessment of today’s observations, we have seen the highest levels of family voting at any election in our 10 year history of observing elections in the UK…In the other recent Westminster parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby we saw family voting in 12 per cent of polling stations, affecting 1 per cent of voters. In Gorton and Denton, we observed family voting in 68 per cent of polling stations, affecting 12 per cent of those voters observed.” (Family voting is when more than one person enters a polling booth at once, with the implication that one man is voting on behalf of other members of his family – and it is almost always a man doing the voting.)
It is, of course, a deeply concerning statement. But let’s not kid ourselves into thinking this is something new and unprecedented. In the 1990s I worked for Peter Shore, the Labour MP for Bethnal Green and Stepney where there was a large Bengali population. The issue then was not what happened in polling stations but, rather, with postal votes, when there were of course no monitors watching as votes were cast.
It was not even just the head of a family filling out ballot papers; there were widespread reports of bunches of ballot papers being filled out together, sometimes dozens at one time. And there were wins based on sectarian voting long before the 2024 election, with George Galloway winning not one, not two but three such victories – in the very same Bethnal Green (this time with Bow rather than Stepney), in Bradford West and in Rochdale.
But vital as it is that reports of family voting are investigated, we should not succumb to the comforting thought that the concerning issue in Gorton and Denton is about process and electoral law. It seems clear that even if there were no such abuses, the Greens would have triumphed given the size of the Muslim vote in the constituency.
I spoke recently to a pollster who has conducted focus groups among Muslim voters and others drawn to the Greens. They show – as is surely obvious – that it is not despite the party’s sectarianism that the party is doing so well – it is because of it. For many Muslims, the Greens’ focus on Gaza and Polanski’s non-stop repetition of the accusation of genocide by Israel is magnetic in its appeal. And such tactics also work for other voters looking for a more left-wing alternative to Labour.
The real worry about the Gorton and Denton result is not that it is unique. It is that it is merely the latest example of the strength of the sectarian Muslim vote – and that it will not only be the Greens who seek to win support on the back of such voting. Much of Labour’s behaviour can already be attributed to its fear of sectarian voting, from its treatment of Israel as an enemy to its push for a definition of so-called Islamophobia.
Given that it is nonetheless haemorrhaging support to the Greens, that surely signals that Labour will – under a new leader? – step up its efforts to court the Muslim vote.
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