UK recognition of Palestine: What has been announced and why?

While the much of the press’ headlines are focused on the government setting a date on recognising a Palestinian state, something Starmer has hitherto hesitated to do – despite Labour’s manifesto commitment to “recognising a Palestinian state as a contribution to a renewed peace process” – there is still much confusion.

It is, as yet, unclear whether this “assessment” Starmer talked about means that if Israeli hostages – snatched from their homes on October 7 by Hamas terrorists – are still being held in dungeons deep underneath Gaza, that the UK might hold off on recognising a Palestinian state.

Understandably, hostage families are concerned about what the announcement means for their loved ones.

A statement by Adam Rose and Adam Wagner KC, lawyers for British hostage families, said that the Starmer “risks disincentivising Hamas from releasing the hostages”.

They demanded the prime minister “provide clarity and confirm, unambiguously, that Hamas will not be rewarded and that the UK will not take any substantive steps until all the hostages are free.”

At the same time as the government’s announcement on Tuesday afternoon, Labour parliamentarians received a private briefing on why the government had taken the action it had.

Despite the fact that 147 Labour MPs – including over 90 who were first elected at the last general election – backed calls for the government to immediately recognise a Palestinian state, not all Labour MPs welcomed the decision.

One backbencher was livid: “Incentivising Hamas not to release the hostages is a staggering position to be in. It’s dark, it’s grotesque, it’s a betrayal of those fighting to get their loved ones out of the tunnels of Gaza. Surely, on reflection, this position will change, it’s not morally defendable.”

They also suggested that capitulating to backbenchers wouldn’t buy the government much long-term peace and quiet and, despite the historic announcement, the prime minister may soon face more demands to harden the government’s position on Israel even further.

“It’s not universal, but many Labour MPs hold deeply hostile personal views towards Israel and their hearts aren’t open to hearing two sides. If the government thinks this will satisfy their demands, it won’t”, they said.

Another MP suggested that the announcement was motivated by a shift in public opinion because of the striking images of hunger in Gaza.

“Public opinion has changed. My inbox is full of constituents concerned about starvation in Gaza” they told the JC.

Although they backed recognition of a Palestinian state, they said that the time wasn’t right and that “Hamas needs to be gone” and were concerned that the government’s announcement “could empower Hamas and could have a negative impact on getting the hostages out.”

Despite their apprehension, they were hopeful that the international pressure on Israel would lead to the alleviation of the humanitarian conditions in Gaza: “If just one kid is saved then that’s a benefit.”

Although Israel’s government accused Starmer of rewarding Hamas and “efforts to achieve a ceasefire”, Labour insiders are scathing of Netanyahu and his government’s actions – both in Gaza and the West Bank – and the incendiary remarks by his coalition allies.

One former Labour minister, who has historically been a strong supporter of Israel, told the JC that: “There has been a steady evolution of the situation from bad to worse” and that “public opinion on starvation in Gaza is horrified.” Earlier this week, even US President Donald Trump publicly disagreed with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said that there was no starvation in Gaza.

The former minister then attacked Netanyahu’s “obsession with Judea and Samaria”, and the seeming lawlessness of Jewish settlers attacking Palestinians.

One current Labour frontbencher was similarly scathing of the public statements by Israeli government ministers throughout the conflict.

Two far-right members of Netanyahu’s cabinet – Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich – were the first Israeli government ministers to ever face sanctions by a British government over “extremist violence and serious abuses of Palestinian human rights”.

Smotrich has also talked about annexing parts of the Gaza strip, as well as for its destruction and the departure of Palestinians living there to third countries. 

“The Israeli government don’t think anyone cares”, the frontbencher told the JC, adding: “Ministers literally say outrageous comments that the International Criminal Court can use”.

Although they said that it would be “a good thing and a good decision” if announcement by the government helped kickstart the peace process or created an opening for Netanyahu to pivot away from his far-right coalition towards a more mainstream position, they were also confused by the detail in their own government’s announcement.

“What happens if both sides fail to meet the conditions?”, they asked.

The Labour figure also said that the announcement could further hurt Labour electorally with Jewish voters.

A JC poll earlier this month revealed that the party had slumped down to third – behind the Conservatives and Reform UK.

All three constituencies in the London Borough of Barnet – Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon and Chipping Barnet – are marginal constituencies held by Labour (Hendon’s David Pinto-Duschinsky has a razor-thin majority of just 15 votes) and are all among the top ten constituencies with the largest number of Jewish voters.

Although the general election is still up to four years away, Labour will likely face a battle to hold onto Barnet council at next year’s local elections.

As well as concerns about the impact of the announcement on Labour’s popularity among British Jews, some in Labour are concerned that being seen as focusing on Gaza at the expense of domestic issues could hurt them with voters more widely.

Amid fears of social unrest following protests about hotels housing migrants up and down the country, as well as trailing Nigel Farage’s party in successive opinion polls (the party was seven points behind Reform UK in the latest poll by YouGov), one Labour source accused MPs of treating “the House of Commons like an A-Level politics debate.”

“The electorate won't forgive a Labour Party that's more interested in Gaza than sorting out the health service, fixing the economy and protecting our borders”, they added.

It is something rival political parties are already starting to exploit.

Starmer specifically recalled his cabinet for an emergency session to discuss Gaza ahead of his announcement, something Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch was keen to point out.

“He’s not convening his cabinet to talk about the migrant crisis. He’s not convening cabinet to talk about all those farmers who are closing down their businesses, what they’re going to do about the economy, the debt crisis [that] seems to be looming”, she told TalkTV host Mike Graham ahead of the announcement.

Nigel Farage’s party were similarly keen to put the boot into the government on the matter.

“Voters are furious so much Labour thinking is on Gaza or giving away Chagos islands and so little focus nor emergency cabinet meetings on the illegal boat crisis. Warped priorities”, Reform UK’s deputy leader Richard Tice told the JC.