Prepare for a weak but reckless Iran to go on the front foot against Israel

The mood in Iran is particularly telling. A “so what” attitude is in the air. One source I spoke with in the Iranian Foreign Ministry claimed the regime “can sustain sanctions”. Another in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Basij militia brazenly told me “we are experts at circumventing sanctions”.

And while the Iran’s regime is known for miscalculating and overreaching its hand, there is an element of truth to what I was told.

In 2018, when a first-term President Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed unilateral US sanctions, Washington successfully managed to achieve sanctions enforcement, not least on Iranian oil – the regime’s main source of revenue.

However, as President Biden took office, while the sanctions remained in place, enforcement was effectively ignored in a bid to woo Tehran into a new deal. During Biden’s four-years – despite US sanctions remaining in place –Iran’s regime was able to accumulate as much as $175 billion in oil revenue. Approximately, $140 billion of crude was sold to China alone, accounting for more than 80 per cent of its total sales. Given that revenue generated from Iran’s illicit oil sales serves as one of the main sources of funding for the IRGC and its terrorist militias – not least Hamas and Hezbollah – it is almost certain that the $175 billion Tehran amassed under Biden in part funded the October 7 terrorist attacks.

But funds generated during this period are only part of the problem. Nodding to point made by the source I spoke with in the Basij, the Iranian regime also used the four-years to develop a complex and shadowy sanctions evasion architecture – one that remains in place to this very day.

And while President Trump now seeks to clamp down on Iran’s illicit oil sales and sanctions evasions, the reality is, thus far, the Europeans have done very little to support its efforts. Not only has Europe failed to effectively sanction Iran’s ghost fleet, but insurance companies – many of which are based in London – continue to turn a blind eye towards insuring tankers that will at some point in their journey make contact with sanctioned Iranian oil.

This kind of illicit activity is only going to ramp up as Tehran becomes internationally isolated following the reimposition of UN sanctions. In fact, these efforts are well in place.

But what comes next? While Tehran may be shrugging its shoulders, the reality on the ground tells a very different picture.

As a result of Israel’s response to the October 7 terrorist attack, the IRGC’s regional project has suffered a huge set-back: its proxies – including Hezbollah in Lebanon – have suffered irreparable losses; its nuclear weapons programme has been significantly scaled back; and its most senior military commanders have been eliminated as a result of the regime’s 12-day war with Israel.

Meanwhile, Iran’s economy is on a continuous downward spiral – with the Iranian rial sinking to an all-time low – anti-regime dissent continues to surge, and direct conflict with Israel is once again looking like an increasing prospect. In other words, Iran has bigger problems to worry about than international sanctions – problems that, in many ways, feel existential to its existence.

But it would be a critical mistake to interpret weakness as impotence. Rather, it is precisely this status quo that makes the nature of the Iranian regime even more recklessly dangerous.

There is an increasing view within the regime that direct conflict with Israel is no longer a question of “if” but “when”. To prepare for this, many within the IRGC recommend the regime go on he front foot. Of course, preemptive action against Israel is highly unlikely. But just as in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Iranian regime believes if it can bog-down world powers – not least Israel and the US –in another crisis in the region, the chances of a direct strike against Tehran significantly reduce.

Crucially, this Iranian calculus takes place against the backdrop of Trump’s new Middle East peace plan – a vision for the region the Ayatollah has spent more than 30-decades opposing through exporting terror and violence in the name of the “Palestinian cause.”

Make no mistake: the increasingly isolated Iranian regime will use every means at its disposal to undermine President Trump’s plan, with the twin aims of obstructing peace between Arabs and Israelis and bogging down both the US and Israel.

This is precisely why the reimposition of UN sanctions on Tehran must be viewed not as a “job done” moment, but as the starting point for internationally isolating the rogue regime.

The next step is to enforce a truly global “maximum pressure” campaign — disrupting Tehran’s sanctions-evasion networks and employing every available tool to weaken the IRGC. The ayatollah remains the greatest disruptor of Trump’s vision for the Middle East. And as the US invests time, energy, and resources in bringing lasting peace and modernisation to the war-torn region, it cannot afford to ignore the single largest obstacle to achieving that historic vision.