1 min read
There is one thing that the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority can agree on at this point. It is that the Palestinian decision last week to seek a UN Security Council resolution setting a timetable for the establishment of a Palestinian state, and their subsequent request to join the International Criminal Court (ICC), are a clear signal that the Oslo process is now officially and totally over.
Of course, many will argue that Oslo and all it symbolised was rendered null and void years ago - a victim of Palestinian terror and intransigence or of Israel's settlement building and aggressive policies - but the final death certificate was issued this week.
If the past is anything to go by, the Israeli decision to freeze transfers of Palestinian tax money to the PA will be short-lived. Both sides have a clear interest in the continued functioning of the Abbas government in Ramallah and the rest of the West Bank - that is, until they have an alternative, and neither side has one for now.
Palestinian leaders such as Saeb Erekat are threatening to dissolve the PA and "leave Israel with all the responsibilities of an occupying power", while reports have once again emerged of meetings between President Mahmoud Abbas's rival, Mahmoud Dahlan, and Israeli leaders. In the latest case, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was rumoured to have met Mr Dahlan in Paris, although his office denied such a meeting took place.
For now, neither development - an Abbas abdication or an Israeli-backed coup - seems likely. Even in its current dysfunctional state, the continued rule of the PA in the West Bank is preferable to the chaos that would reign otherwise. For all the tough talk on either side, they still have much to lose.
Lack of any diplomatic process leaves door open to those seeking violence
As it is, even if it gets the go-ahead, the Palestinian bid to file war crimes indictments at the ICC will take years to get off the ground.
However, the lack of even a semblance of diplomatic engagement leaves the region vulnerable to the many players seeking to escalate the violence.
The impasse is not only the fault of Israeli and Palestinian leaders.
The Obama administration, which failed to cajole the two sides into some form of agreement, deserves part of the blame, as does the European Union, which cannot even come up with a unified position: Britain and France voted differently at the Security Council last week. The US approach seems to be to wait for the outcome of the Israeli elections and hope for the best. Not much of a foreign policy.
To get more from opinion, click here to sign up for our free Editor's Picks newsletter.