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Tim Marshall

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Tim Marshall,

Tim Marshall

Analysis

Much to play for as Iran heads towards crossroads

September 18, 2014 10:18
Ailing: Khamenei
2 min read

Iran's Supreme Leader left hospital this week facing a packed in-tray, with issues including the nuclear talks, Islamic State (IS) and the question of who will succeed him at the top of the pile. The three subjects are linked.

The authorities said that the 75-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was in "good health" following what they described as prostate surgery. However, rumours abound in Tehran that he is suffering from terminal cancer.

Iran is heading towards a geo-political crossroads and the question of succession will not wait. The 35-year-old Islamic Republic has only known two supreme leaders, both of whom were in the vanguard of the revolution which overthrew the Shah. The next will come from the younger generation - one that is split between hardliners, pragmatists and "liberals".

There is not much point in the Supreme Leader lining up the head of the Expediency Council - 80-year-old Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani - as his replacement, nor the 87-year-old head of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati.