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The implications of the Iranian elections last Friday for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts are already being hotly contested by pundits and partisans. Are the results truly, as reported, a victory for the "moderates"? Will they have any real effect on Iran's policies?
Answers to such questions are difficult to check as the Guardian Council had the power to disqualify candidates, and they indeed did so, hundreds of times, denying entire echelons of reform-minded politicians from running. The other major factor is that while the Majles (Iranian parliament) and the elected president have a degree of control over Iran's economy and home affairs, the more crucial areas of justice, religion, foreign policy and the military, are all controlled by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is not elected but appointed for life by the Guardian Council.
Voters seeking more moderate alternatives had little choice but to choose between hardline representatives, some of whom they knew little about. The definitions of new members of the 290-seat parliament as "moderate", "conservative", "moderate conservative" and "hardliner" do not really clarify the situation.
It does seem, however, that there has been a shift from the bloc of Majles members who opposed any forms of engagement with the west towards those who support the nuclear deal signed last year with the international community.
One development that appears to confirm this comes in the shape of conspiracy theories emanating from the regime's Islamic Revolutionary Guard suggesting that there has been "foreign intervention" in the electoral process involving a mysterious "CIA agent". It is also clear that many of the most hardline members of the Guardians Council have lost their seats. The real test will come when Supreme Leader Khamenei decides whether to accept these changes.
