How Israel is bracing for a possible Iran war as protests shake the Islamic Republic

It is the familiar rhythm of Israeli life – tension covered up by routine and anxiety embedded in the day-to-day.

And yet beneath the tension there is also something else: hope.

The hope is that the violent regime that seized power in Iran 47 years ago may finally be approaching its end. A group of authoritarian ayatollahs who have systematically suppressed their own people while exporting hegemony through a vast proxy network across the Middle East could, at long last, be losing its grip.

First and foremost, such an outcome would be a victory for the Iranian people themselves. But it would also represent a profound improvement in Israel’s strategic environment and in the broader stability of the region.

That does not mean the day after would be risk-free. There is no guarantee that whatever emerges in Tehran would align neatly with the United States, Israel or the West. Iran could fragment internally, splintering into competing forces. In such a scenario, some of the sophisticated weapons accumulated by the regime over decades could leak into the hands of terrorist organisations or other hostile actors.

While that Libya-like outcome may seem unlikely right now, in today’s Iran almost nothing can be ruled out.

What is clear, however, is that the current unrest did not emerge in a vacuum. The regional shockwaves of the past two years have weakened the regime in ways few anticipated. The war forced upon Israel on October 7, and the subsequent rounds of confrontation with Iran and its proxies, exposed vulnerabilities that had long been hidden by the ayatollahs.

The 12-day war last June, in particular, punctured the myth of invincibility. It showed the world and the Iranian public that the regime is, in many respects, a paper tiger – that it squandered tens of billions of dollars on programmes now in ruins, all while ordinary Iranians paid the price through economic decay.

And still, this is precisely where humility is required.

Forecasting political collapse is notoriously difficult, especially in authoritarian systems that survive by adapting, repressing and absorbing shocks. The appearance of fragility often conceals coercive power.

A useful reminder comes from 2012, when Israel’s defence minister at the time, Ehud Barak, predicted that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad would fall within a year. Syria was descending into civil war, Assad appeared isolated, and pressure was mounting from the Arab world, the West and parts of his own population.

As history showed, what Barak believed would take a year stretched into twelve. Assad was only removed a year ago. And Barak was not a random pundit speculating on television – he was Israel’s defence minister, with access to some of the best intelligence in the world.

Today, a similar overconfidence is visible across much of the media landscape. Commentators confidently declare that the Iranian regime is collapsing, that its fall is inevitable, and that it is only a matter of time. They cite unnamed officials in Washington and Jerusalem who supposedly believe the end is near.

The reality is far more complicated. The truth is that no one really knows. Authoritarian regimes often endure longer than external observers expect.

This is not an argument for passivity. On the contrary – the West should absolutely be doing more to support the protesters, materially, politically and diplomatically. The courage of Iranians risking their lives in the streets deserves far more than just rhetoric.

And yes, history can accelerate suddenly. A direct American strike could reshape the trajectory overnight. A crack inside the IRGC or among the regime’s elite could trigger a domino effect. History is full of moments like this.

But when an authoritarian government is fighting for survival, it rarely collapses on a neat timeline. Systems built on fear and coercion do not dissolve easily.

As Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment has observed, revolutions tend to be marathons, not sprints.

That insight should push policymakers toward strategic planning rather than wishful thinking. Not treating collapse as inevitable, but preparing for multiple pathways: sustained support for Iranian civil society, real pressure on the regime’s financial and security power centres, and clear, consistent messaging to the Iranian people that the democratic world stands with them.

Israel, meanwhile, will need to continue preparing for the worst while quietly hoping for the best – a familiar posture for a country accustomed to a flair of optimism tempered by vigilance.

The writer is a co-founder of the MEAD policy forum, a senior fellow at JPPI, and a former editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post. His newest book is While Israel Slept.