By voting for dissolution, the Blue and White leader admitted he had lost all hope of Netanyahu allowing him to become prime minister next year
December 3, 2020 10:46
In his speech on Wednesday evening after the Knesset voted to dissolve itself — only eight months after it was sworn in — Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t mention the two main reasons his fifth government is about to fall: his refusal to abide by the agreement he signed with Benny Gantz and pass a state budget for 2021 and his trial on bribery and fraud allegations.
Instead, he repeatedly attacked Blue and White for inventing a “new Israeli start-up, an opposition within a coalition — a coasition.”
It was a feeble joke which didn’t improve as it was repeated, but Mr Netanyahu could afford it.
Mr Gantz had just voted to dissolve the Knesset, in effect conceding defeat in the long three-election campaign of the past two years. He had tried to pressure the prime minister into delivering a budget and fulfilling their agreement. But Mr Netanyahu brazened it out, accusing Blue and White of being the ones who had “breached the agreement from day one.”
The argument over who broke the agreement is no longer relevant. By voting for dissolution Mr Gantz has admitted that he had lost all hope of Mr Netanyahu going through with the “rotation” and making way for his rival to become prime minister in November 2021. By then there will almost certainly be a new Knesset and a different government.
It isn’t final. The dissolution measure has only passed its preliminary reading and theoretically a compromise can still be reached on the budget which would allow would allow Mr Gantz and his party’s MKs to vote against in the next readings.
But trust and credibility can no longer be rebuilt. It will simply be a short stay of the government’s final execution. An alternative government under a different prime minister is even less likely. Elections are almost certain to be held now in March or April. Israel’s fourth parliamentary election in four years.
One young journalist put it well. “Netanyahu is like the boyfriend who wants to break up but doesn’t want to be the one breaking up, so he treats you like crap until you leave.” His main message on Wednesday night was that he was the one who insisted on “unity” and that he had done everything in his power to prevent an election.
Standing in the background were spin-doctors who had already been hired for the upcoming campaign. But blaming Mr Gantz for bringing the government down is an unconvincing narrative, and even if it does convince some voters, he is no longer Mr Netanyahu’s main rival.
Broken and demoralised, Mr Gantz’s political fortunes have not yet recovered from disappointing his voters back in May when he entered a coalition with Mr Netanyahu. Now he has been forced to humiliate himself once again by admitting that it was all for nothing and his ostensible partner was never going to hold up his end of the deal.
If he decides to run again in the upcoming election, it won’t be as the leader of the anti-Netanyahu camp. At most he will take a back seat or make do with a sliver of what was once, for a few months, the largest party in the Knesset.
Now that he has seen off the Gantz threat once and for all, Mr Netanyahu has to prepare for his new challengers. On his right is Naftali Bennett’s Yamina; in the centre-ground, Yair Lapid, who split from Blue and White; and slightly to the left there is an as yet non-existent party which is expected to include Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot and another old champion of the center-left, Tzipi Livni.
Unlike Blue and White at its peak, none of these parties are expected to rival Likud as the largest in the Knesset, but should they join forces after the next selection, they could appoint a different prime minister.
The opposition is more divided than ever following Mr Gantz’s serial failure, but that also creates a problem for Mr Netanyahu. His style of campaigning needs an enemy and with three of them, at least, he will have trouble articulating a clear message. Which is why he is in no great hurry to hold the election. He needs one at some point in 2021, to try to scrape together a majority for immunity laws, before his trial gets too advanced to avoid. But he’d prefer it took place in the summer, after Israel has carried out its Covid vaccination drive.
So he’ll try to buy a few more months, use parliamentary procedure to postpone the next dissolution votes, or tempt Mr Gantz with a belated budget. After all, he’s used him so well for his political purposes so far.
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