Estonia, a Baltic nation with just 2,000 Jews, has been a staunch ally of Israel during the war and, this week, Israeli President Isaac Herzog visited the country, meeting his Estonian counterpart Alar Karis.
Mihkelson explained that one of the key reasons that his nation has been so supportive of the Jewish State is its history of being occupied by the Soviet Union – as well as its current proximity to Russia’s war against Ukraine. On this latter point, Mihkelson was keen to emphasise the connection between Hamas’s actions on October 7 and the threat posed by Russia against Europe.
“This was one of their hybrid tools to fight a proxy war against the West,” he said. “How can we be sure this is not in their minds today, when we have seen Hamas delegations in Moscow prior to October 7 and after October 7? There is a very strong strategic alliance between Russia and Iran. Iran is supporting Russia in their war against Ukraine; behind it are also North Korea and China.”
A former journalist, who covered the war in Chechnya and served as a Russia correspondent, Mihkelson claimed the Kremlin benefits from international instability.
“Maybe I sound dramatic, but I think the suffering of the people in Gaza is beneficial for a certain international interest. We all know – we in Estonia understand a bit better – what the mentality is and thinking behind Russian action and how they could benefit from what is happening now.”
His concern is that, in the eyes of both Hamas and Moscow, violence has been validated by the Western world.
“If Hamas can see that killing pays off, that they [Palestine] will be recognised, they will survive. Russia – similar. If they feel that the international community is willing to recognise that aggression pays off, Putin will not stop there.”
And, with Estonia bordering Russia, the threat feels immediate. “We are getting closer to a much more dramatic and turbulent world,” he said.
“Those forces that have played a decisive role in keeping stability in the Middle East are not today ready or able to make a difference. I mean, first and foremost, the US.
"The situation is difficult. The US is not able to be the unique power player. Nowadays, you have China, Russia, Iran, North Korea. Their aim is to destroy or redefine the current world order.”
After October 7, Mihkelson visited the sites of the Hamas massacre in southern Israel, including Kibbutz Be’eri and the Nova music festival. “It made me understand very deeply the consequences of the past and what could happen next,” he added.
Together with Rihards Kols, the chair of Latvia's foreign affairs committee, and Žygimantas Pavilionis, the deputy chair of the committee in Lithuania, Mihkelson visited the sites of the Hamas-led massacre in southern Israel just ten days after the attack (Photo: courtesy)[Missing Credit]
He acknowledged the terrible suffering of Palestinians in Gaza, but also suggested that images of the conflict are being used dishonestly to sway public opinion. “The optics – what is coming out of Gaza – can be used as a manipulative tool. But also without any manipulation, you can see the suffering of civilians is horrible.”
While Estonia voted in favour of a UN General Assembly resolution last year calling on Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territories, Mihkelson said future steps must focus on results not symbolism.
“Our position has been for a long time similar – we don’t exclude the full recognition of independence of a country… but our first and most important principal here is: if we do so, do we help to bring peace into the region? Will this be more than a political declaration? How will this resonate with what happened on October 7?
"Isn’t this recognition of Hamas, a terrorist organisation that still has as its primary goal to destroy Israeli statehood and kill Jews?”
Likewise, he supports a two-state solution, but said that October 7 pushed the prospect of peace further away. “Estonia’s position has been the same as other countries – agree with two-state formation – unfortunately, there is a very limited will specifically from the Palestinian Arab side to achieve this peace.
"October 7 was a major turning point that pushed that goal of two states living next to each other in peaceful terms further into the future.”
But, despite numerous meetings with the Palestinian Authority, he said he encountered “a lack of courage, leadership and the will to break with a violent past and build something different within the Palestinian state”.
