Iran’s new supreme leader will be driven by “revenge” against Israel and the United States, drastically reducing hopes for a rapid regime change, according to an expert on the dictatorship.
Mojtaba Khamenei, a hardline cleric with close links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was announced as successor to his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday.
The late supreme leader and Khamenei’s mother were killed in the opening attack of Operation Roaring Lion in Tehran the previous weekend and he has also lost his wife and one of his three children in an airstrike.
Dr Raz Zimmt, Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis research programme at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), is a veteran Iran watcher in the Israeli Defence Forces where he served for more than two decades.
Speaking at a briefing organised by the Israeli Embassy in London, he said that one of the hopes surrounding the action against Iran was a change in the behaviour of the leadership which might see decisions take a “different trajectory”.
But he said: “This does not seem very likely with the selection and nomination of Mojtaba as the next supreme leader of Iran.
“With his sense of revenge for losing his father, his mother, his son, his wife, it is very unlikely he will adopt a most conciliatory position towards the United States and Israel regarding Iran’s strategic goals including its original aspiration, its ballistic missiles capacities and even its nuclear programme.”
Mojtaba, 56, born in the north-eastern city of Mashhad, he is the second of Ali Khamenei's six children.
He served in the military for several short periods while in his late teens during the Iran-Iraq War, according to Iranian media.
Mainly keeping a low profile, he has never held government office or given public speeches or interviews, but there has been long standing speculation he held considerable influence behind the scenes.
US diplomatic cables, published by WikiLeaks in the late 2000s, described him as "the power behind the robes".
Dr Zimmt said: “It is clear because of his position in the supreme leader’s office for many years, his association with the security intelligence in Iran most importantly, the IRGC seemed to play a major part in the decision to nominate him.
“We know that he is very much associated with the Revolutionary Guard, he had very good connections with former director of the guard’s intelligence organisation.
“There have been some reports by the Iranian opposition that he played a role in trying to bring the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the controversial elections in 2009 and he also cooperated with Iran’s intelligence apparatus in order to weaken the more pragmatic elements in Iran, so it is very clear that his position in the domestic scene seems to be very hardline, against any kind of reform from within.
“On foreign policy he is likely to support Iran’s existing strategic goals and regional aspirations but also the revolutionary guards on ballistic missiles and perhaps even nuclear capabilities.”
Dr Zimmt said that a major Israeli objective was to ensure that even if the Iranian regime is still intact after the war, it will be too weak to invest in the same strategic goals as before the war.
But he added: “We have to assume that unless something very surprising happens, after being for so many years under the influence of his father, and having just lost his entire family because of the US and Israel, we should very much expect a very hawkish and hardline positions coming from Mojtaba, not just on the domestic scene but also on foreign policy.
“He was the only candidate for succession who might find it not very difficult to replace his father because if they had chosen a high ranking cleric with no connections to the IRGC they would not know how to manage the daily affairs and this would have been a problem for Iran at this point.
“The fact that Mojtaba, although behind the scenes was very influential in managing Iran it would make it easier for him to take control.”
To get more news, click here to sign up for our free daily newsletter.