While the British media was transfixed on Wednesday by Dominic Cummings’ account of the goings on in Downing Street, Whitehall’s new most powerful Dominic found himself in Jerusalem. 

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab was late to the show, arriving in the region after his German and American counterparts had already been and done the rounds of Israeli and Palestinian leaders, urging them to hold to the ceasefire in Gaza and for the Israelis and Palestinians to find ways of re-engaging.

It was nothing more than Britain “showing the flag,” one senior Israeli diplomat sniffed, dismissively. But it was at least an illustration of how regional diplomacy has swiftly gone back to its usual platitudes. 

Just a month before, another senior British minister, Michael Gove, had been in Israel on an urgent mission to learn from its successful experience on rapid coronavirus vaccinations and Covid passports. For a change, Israel was being seen as a shining example to the world. Now western foreign ministers are back in their old mode of lecturing Israelis and Palestinians, and achieving nothing in the process. 

• Off again, on again

The first person Dominic Raab met in Jerusalem, even before he had time to settle in his suite at the King David Hotel, was Yair Lapid. Not that the meeting had any diplomatic significance (much like Mr Raab’s other meetings). They were meeting in Mr Lapid’s capacity as leader of the opposition and it was largely a courtesy call, but the next time they meet, the two fellow karate black-belts could be opposite numbers. 

Mr Lapid’s 28-day mandate to form a government expires at midnight on Wednesday, and despite being told by Naftali Bennett two weeks ago that, in the wake of Arab rioting in “mixed” towns within Israel, a “government of change” with the support of Arab parties is now impossible, it has quickly come back onto the table. 
The terms remain the same. Mr Bennett will serve first as prime minister, with Mr Lapid becoming foreign minister and prime minister-alternate (rather like Mr Raab’s extra title of First Secretary of State). 

Officially at least, they’re still not talking and Mr Bennett has yet to say in public that he thinks a coalition is still possible. By all accounts, he still wants to do it, but something is stopping him. Instead, he has repeatedly equivocated. In his first statement since the ceasefire, posted on Sunday on Facebook, he lambasted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but then wrote: “Netanyahu is not the enemy. The left-wing is not the enemy. Hamas is the enemy” — adding that “even today, there is a number of alternatives to form a government.”

His Yamina co-leader Ayelet Shaked was equally vague. On Wednesday she came up with this cryptic formulation: “More difficult than keeping campaign promises is paying the price to prevent a fifth election.” Which could mean she’s going to back Mr Bennett if he joins a government with left wing and Arab parties, or she’s already trying to deflect the blame for yet another election. 

Talks between Mr Lapid’s team and most of the other parties who would be part of the new coalition are already well advanced, with ministries being allocated, but it all still seems like these are seats around a make-believe cabinet table. Especially those promised to Meretz, the left-wing Zionist party that hasn’t been in government for over 20 years. But the stage is set, and all Naftali Bennett has to do is brave the bright lights and step on to it. 

• Message received

l Without anyone noticing, Mr Netanyahu’s trial is already in week eight of witness testimonies. With East Jerusalem in chaos all around it, in the District Court on Salah al-Din Street the painstaking cross-examination of Witness Number One, former Walla CEO Ilan Yeshua, continues. This week, the defence scored its most significant blow yet in the shape of dozens of text messages in which Yeshua discussed going easy on the popular website’s coverage of various influential politicians and business people.

Some of the messages are deliciously indiscreet, such as one in which the former Labour leader demanded — and received — the headline of his choice and called his predecessor Shelly Yachimovich “the bitch”. 

Beyond the gossip interest, they not only strengthened the defence’s case that Mr Netanyahu is being unfairly prosecuted for something part-and-parcel of the relationship between media and politics, they have also caused major embarrassment to the prosecution. The messages were not disclosed to the defence with the rest of the evidence as “relevant material”, leading to stern words from the judges to lead prosecutor Yehudit Tirosh.

The setback doesn’t mean the case has “collapsed”, as some of the prime minister’s media outriders have been crowing. The prosecution’s case, as backed up by Mr Yeshua’s testimony, is still that the scale of interventions on behalf of Mr Netanyahu was way beyond those on behalf of other politicians and, most crucially in his case, there was an alleged quid-pro-quo in the shape of regulatory decisions worth hundreds of millions of shekels, which serve as the basis for the bribery charge. 

And besides, even if the Walla case was to collapse, he is also on trial for fraud in the Gifts and Yedioth Ahronot cases. The Netanyahu trial seems likely to serve as Israel’s background music for years to come. That is, unless somehow the proceedings cease. Perhaps by a presidential pardon. 

• Presidential pardon?

By total coincidence, next Wednesday, the last day of Yair Lapid’s mandate, is also the day on which the Knesset will vote to decide who will be Israel’s next president, when Reuven Rivlin’s seven-year term ends in July. As each MK votes separately and secretly, the presidential election is a rare event in Israeli politics that transcends the usual party lines. Although some parties officially endorse a specific candidate, many MKs still go their own way.

On the face of it, the two candidates who have gathered the requisite number of ten MKs’ signatures are classic representatives of Israel’s ‘right’ and ‘left’. Jewish Agency chairman Isaac ‘Bougie’ Herzog, former Labour leader and MK, son of a Labour MK and president, grandson of an Ashkenazi chief rabbi (though Bougie is secular himself) is the epitome of Israel’s old establishment. 

His rival, Miriam Peretz, a former headteacher and school supervisor who became a prominent public figure after two of her sons, both officers in the Golani brigade, were killed in action, personifies what some call “the Second Israel”. Moroccan-born, as a young woman she lived in one of the Israeli settlements in Sinai before it was dismantled as a result of the Israel-Egypt peace accords. Today she lives in the West Bank town of Giv’at Ze’ev. 

But neither are assured of ‘their’ political camps’ support. Mr Herzog is a veteran political operator with friends in all parts of the Knesset, and has been planning his campaign for three years at least. He has locked in the support of the Charedi parties, who see him as someone who ‘respects religion’ and are not enamoured of the idea of having a woman for president. 

Mrs Peretz has been close to the prime minister in the past. After his election victory in 2015, he called her first. But he is not expected to publicly endorse either candidate. 
Interestingly, two Likud MKs were among the MKs who gave Mr Herzog their signatures and they’re unlikely to have done so without their leader’s permission. 

The president has few constitutional powers, but one of them is to pardon criminals. Neither candidate has been prepared to rule out a future pardon for Mr Netanyahu, but both have denied having any understanding with him on the matter. A pardon from a president seen as a member of the “leftist” establishment would be preferable to one from a president identified as a right-winger and confidant. 

Pardons are usually issued only after a conviction. In such a case, Mr Netanyahu would escape a prison term but would still be barred from public office. However, according to one report, Mr Herzog has already elicited a controversial legal opinion allowing him to pardon someone still undergoing criminal procedures. It’s not hard to see why he is the clear favourite.