‘High likelihood’ Hamas will attack Europe in the next six months, intelligence report warns

Hamas has expanded into Europe through an intricate network of “influence” with charities, non-government organisations and hardcore crime gangs, it adds.

Rather than being discouraged by their near-defeat in Gaza, Hamas, the significant blows suffered by Hamas, including the loss of their key leader, has fuelled the group’s ambitions to spread their terror further abroad, according to the intelligence experts.

"The organisation’s leadership now appears more willing to accept the strategic risks of external operations,” the report states, adding: “If Hamas sustains further attrition, external operations may grow in relative importance within the group’s strategy.”

Elaborating on the strategy behind their suspected expansion, the report explains: “The group appears increasingly inclined to rely on small, compartmented cells supported by pre-positioned weapons, criminal facilitators, and dual-use technologies such as commercially available drones.

"Evidence accumulated between 2019 and 2025 demonstrates that Hamas undertook extensive, long-term preparations for potential global operations. These efforts included embedding trusted operatives across Europe, establishing covert weapons caches, and cultivating operational links with organised crime groups.”

The current threat level of a terror attack in the UK is assessed by to be "substantial", according to MI5 and the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre.

Over the next six months there is a “high likelihood of continued attempts at external operations, particularly in Europe, as Hamas seeks to demonstrate resilience”, the report warns.

Worryingly for the Jewish community, it appears Hamas’s key targets in Europe include Israeli diplomatic missions, businesses with Israeli links or religious sites related to the Jewish state.

"It is entirely possible that Hamas will feel the need to launch attacks outside Gaza and in Europe and there are reports of arms caches in the continent. They are popular in Gaza and the West Bank so they feel they have to continue their attacks, no matter how degraded they are there,” Colonel Richard Kemp – a former adviser to the UK government on terrorism and commander of UK forces in Afghanistan – told the Mirror.

“Europe would be a place to expect attacks of this sort and the threat is apparently quite real as Hamas tries to assert its influence. It is of course possible to trace all of their support back to the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] and their Iranian paymasters since they have similar ambitions – to to do harm to Israel and Israelis,” he continued.

"As the risk of attacks from Hamas increase it will become increasingly necessary for Britain to rely upon Israeli intelligence to help them disrupt attempts at attacks by Hamas.”