Prime Minister Andy Burnham has been warned that allowing 16 and 17-year-olds to vote at the next general election could lead to a flood of pro-Gaza independent MPs winning seats.
A report produced by the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB) in May found that, by 2029, Britain will have 49 constituencies in which the Muslim voting population aged 16 and over will be larger than the incumbent MP’s current majority by at least 10,000.
Several MPs within these 49 constituencies are Cabinet ministers and other senior Labour figures, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, former Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips, and Defence Secretary Wes Streeting.
Whilst the report acknowledges that Muslims do not vote as a single uniform block, the report points to its own ‘Muslim vote’ campaign at the previous election as a ‘factor in the election of four independent MPs’ at the last election.
The four MPs, Shockat Adam, Adnan Hussain, Iqbal Mohamed, and Ayoub Khan, were elected on an explicitly pro-Palestinian platform in 2024.
Wider polling has also consistently shown high levels of support for the Palestinian cause among the British Muslim community.
In light of the findings, Kevin Hollinrake, chair of the Conservative Party, has issued a stark warning to the prime minister that lowering the voting age could damage Labour’s electoral prospects.
He told the Daily Mail: “Labour's Votes at 16 plan could backfire in spectacular fashion.
“The Muslim Council of Britain's own figures show 49 constituencies where this expanded electorate could swing the result, and recent elections have shown just how many of those voters are willing to back Gaza independents over Labour.
“Labour may find they've opened a Pandora's Box they can't close.”
In the May 2026 council elections, over 100 Muslim independent councillors were elected to councils across the country, adding to the dozens already in office.
In 2025, Burnham supported then-Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s intention to allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote.
Burnham said that he was “proud to be supporting a new national effort led by My Life My Say and partners from across the country to lower the voting age to 16 in all UK elections, V16.”
He added: “The campaign seeks to update democracy by installing votes at 16, trusting young people to have a say in the decisions that shape their lives.”
The MCB’s report, titled British Muslims in numbers: a statistical compendium, analysed the impact of a major and continuous demographic shift in Britain over the coming years.
Between 2011 and 2021, the Muslim population increased by 1.2 million people, and the group now makes up 6 per cent of the total population.
Over 45 per cent of British Muslims are aged under 25, with Muslims now accounting for one in ten schoolchildren in the UK.
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