Almost a quarter of Israelis will be members of the strictly-Orthodox community by 2025, according to a new study from the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI).
The report found that current demographic trends mean that 22 per cent of the population will be part of one of the various Charedi sects by that year.
This is actually a slightly lower projection than those from the Central Bureau of Statistics, which put the figure at 24.4 per cent, according to the IDI.
The institute’s study then examined the potential impacts on Israeli society, politics, and the economy, especially given the comparatively low rates of social integration, military service, and employment among the Charedi community compared to the general population.
Perhaps the most striking prediction is that GDP per capita could drop by 10 per cent if current trends continue.
Likewise, the percentage of high school students eligible for matriculation exams could drop to just 61.5 per cent, thanks to a stubbornly low 17 per cent eligibility rate among Charedim.
And the change could also wipe more than two per cent off the employment rate, given the relatively low Charedi participation in the workforce.
"The rapid growth of the Charedi population is expected to have a dramatic impact on Israel’s economy and society, due to the group’s distinctive patterns of education and employment,” wrote Dr Gilad Malach, Dr Itamar Yakir and Roe Kenneth Portal, the authors of the report.
"The loss of potential in terms of GDP per capita resulting from the non-integration of Haredim could reach more than 10 per cent, equivalent to approximately 160 billion shekels ($52 billion) in 2023 GDP terms,” they added.
"The findings point to an urgent need for a new, equitable ‘social contract’ between the state and Charedi society, which would include far-reaching changes in the education system, military enlistment, and the subsidisation of the Haredi population.
"Decreasing the economic incentives for non-integration into Israeli society, as well as conditioning state support on the study of core curriculum subjects, military service, and the full realisation of earning capacity, are necessary conditions for achieving the required changes.”
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