Iran’s ability to launch large scale missile attacks is diminishing, according to some experts.
Analysts have noted a sharp drop in the number of ballistic projectiles being fired by Iran since the US-Israeli attack began.
Following the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei on the first day of the operation, Iran launched hundreds of missiles at Israel and Gulf states including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
Qatar’s defence ministry on Wednesday said it had been targeted by just two ballistic missiles, down from seven on Monday.
In total, Qatar claims to have been targeted with at least 101 ballistic missiles, with the vast majority coming in the first and second days of the war.
One major reason for the fall in the number of attacks is likely to be the US-Israeli strategy of targeting Iran’s ground-based missile launchers, known as transporter erector launchers (TEL).
US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said: “In simple terms, we're focused on shooting all the things that can shoot at us."
Cooper said American B-2 and B-1 bombers carried out what he described as uncontested surgical strikes against missile facilities deep inside Iran, and that a B-52 bomber force later targeted ballistic missile command and control posts.
He also reported heavy damage to Iran’s naval forces, adding: “We are seeing Iran’s ability to hit us and our partners is declining, while our combat power, on the other hand, is building.”
Countries such as the UAE and Kuwait have been publishing a daily tally of Iranian missiles and drones launched in their direction.
Iran fired an average of 58 ballistic missiles a day at the UAE in the first two days of conflict but this fell to only 10 on the fourth day.
Bahrain claimed to have successfully intercepted a total of 70 missiles on Tuesday. A day later, it said the total number had risen to 74.
Kuwait claimed to have engaged a total of 97 ballistic missiles in the first 24 hours of the war, but has not provided new figures in the days since.
Canadian arms analyst Colby Badhwar posted on X that although Iran’s ability to launch drones (Shaheds) seemed intact, missiles were a major issue.
He said: “Preliminary evidence that Iran is running out of ballistic missiles: As of 2 days ago, 165 ballistic missiles had been fired at the United Arab Emirates. Yesterday, it was up to 174, and today it is up to 186. They are averaging just 10 BMs per day at the UAE now. Still many Shaheds being launched, but those can be downed with many different effectors. “
Fabian Hoffmann, a missile technology expert based in Oslo described Iran’s capabilities as “heavily degraded”.
He said: “Given that the present conflict is far more existential from a regime perspective and that short-range ballistic missiles are viable, one would expect significantly greater ballistic missile use unless Iran’s missile and launcher capabilities have been heavily degraded – which evidently they are.
“At present, with the possible exception of Bahrain, no Gulf state appears to be in a particularly alarming position.”
How long America’s own stockpile of weapons can last has been a cause of concern in some quarters.
But in a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that US munitions stockpiles “at the medium and upper medium grade” have “never been higher or better,” adding that the US has a “virtually unlimited supply of these weapons.”
“Wars can be fought ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies,” he added.
If Iran’s ability to launch massive missile strikes is waning it will encourage those caught up in the war that a return normal life might not be too far away.
Encouragingly Amit Segal, a political analyst based in Jerusalem posted on X: “From this moment – Home Front Command easings have taken effect: it is permitted to go to work and to gather in groups of up to 50 people, provided that there is a nearby protected space.”
To get more Israel news, click here to sign up for our free Israel Briefing newsletter.