There are still 18 points to be gained from the remaining fixtures in the Premier League, so it is not mathematically impossible that a new face could muscle its way into the top four this season. Seriously, though, what are the chances?
There was a period of a few weeks when Aston Villa looked as if they were genuine contenders and then the rarefied air hit them and they faded faster than those flip-flop mountaineers that end up getting rescued by the emergency services in the Lake District every summer. The ones who think sandals, a half-drunk bottle of Evian and a mobile phone are equipment. This is why unfashionable Everton must be the neutral’s choice in the FA Cup semi-finals this weekend.
They are the last hope of the established order being upset this season. All the other prizes are going to form, right down to Arsenal being the fourth best of the Champions League clubs, so it would be an inspiring end if Everton became the first team in 14 years to knock a member of the elite off the perch in a Wembley final.
If you want something done properly, do it yourself would appear to be the lesson here. Everton’s win against Manchester United in 1995 was the last and only time one of the Premier League’s top four lost an FA Cup final to a team outside its exclusive group. Before that, Wimbledon defeated Liverpool in 1988, but those were very different times.
The seventies produced nine different FA Cup final winners, the eighties produced seven, the nineties six, and this decade has only had five, making it the most predictable since the 1870s, an era when Wanderers dominated and in one season 13 teams entered and Queens Park reached the semi-final without playing a game (two byes and one match scratched; Queens Park then forfeited because they could not afford to travel to London, so they never actually kicked a ball in the competition, yet made the last four).
Aston Villa’s collapse at a critical stage this season was one of the most depressing sights because, for a time, it looked as if there might be a small shift in the balance of power, and that it would be engineered by a promising collection of young English players. Nothing against Arsenal, but the change would have been good for the game. Unless Cesc Fabregas is sold in the summer, it is hard to see Arsenal wobbling like that next season, so the chance may be gone.
This leaves the FA Cup as the one major competition in which the mighty could fall. Too often, though, smaller, middle-ranking clubs sacrifice cup games for the dubious honour of finishing 14th, Everton have been guilty of this in the past and have paid the price. This, however, is a genuine opportunity to win a trophy, their first since 1995. Manchester United, their semi-final opponents, are flagging and will have to rest players on Sunday. As Aston Villa showed, before losing their way late in the game at Old Trafford earlier this month, they are there for the taking right now. If Everton are on their game they should win and from here, anything could happen. This being English football, it probably won’t: but we can dream.
Martin Samuel is the chief sports writer of the Daily Mail, where his column appears on Monday and Wednesday