This may sound counter-intuitive but in one crucial aspect, this was a very stable year in the Middle East. It was a year in which not one leader lost his hold on power and some of those whose grasp seemed tenuous 12 months ago, strengthened their grip.
December 29, 2016 12:21
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In Egypt, General Abdelfattah al-Sisi’s military dictatorship strengthened its grasp on all parts of the country’s society and economy. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan withstood a military coup and is now closer than ever to his dreams of a neo-Ottoman sultanate. Bashar Assad, with a lot of help from his Russian friends, is now in control of the five largest cities in Syria. King Abdullah of Jordan seems to be weathering the Islamist storms remarkably well, while in the Saudi kingdom, an orderly transition of power to a new generation of princes is proceeding.
The Iraqi government, once again with major help from outsiders, is retaking territory lost to Daesh, and in Iran the uneasy coexistence between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s “hardliners” and President Hasan Rouhani’s “moderates” continues to hold. Even Lebanon, after 29 months of a power vacuum, finally got a new president in October.
Of course, this stability of dictators and despots is hardly good news for millions of Syrians uprooted from their homes, and hundreds of thousands have been killed or wounded in the country’s bloody civil war. Neither is it comforting to many other millions of civilians in the region, hoping for a brighter future. But at least it seems as though the Middle East has a new status quo.
Meanwhile, in Israel, things are very much the same. The year is ending ended with the Likud coalition passing a two-year budget, ensuring Benjamin Netanyahu of relative political peace until early 2019. His coalition partners continue to give him periodical headaches but since each of them now control key ministries, they have little interest in rocking the boat too violently. The official opposition is in disarray. The state prosecutors are “probing” various corruption allegations against members of Mr Netanyahu’s inner circle and family but the attorney-general is reluctant to investigate the Prime Minister. The real opposition today in Israel is the media, powerless to do anything but publish more reports that Mr Netanyahu swats away angrily, gaining more support from his base.
This year, he broke David Ben-Gurion’s record by serving the longest consecutive term of any Israeli prime minister and he has confounded the predictions of diplomatic isolation if no concessions are made to the Palestinians. He has built a working relationship with Vladimir Putin and is improving Israel’s relations with Asia and Africa. In a few weeks, he will bid farewell to Barack Obama with whom he never got along and Europe is too busy with its own troubles to bother him with pesky new diplomatic initiatives. Even the low-level “stabbing intifada” petered out this year as the Palestinians discovered that the world has never been less interested in them.
Can Mr Netanyahu continue ensuring Israel’s diplomatic and security stability while not solving the Palestinian conflict? A senior Israeli officer this week predicted further periodic outbreaks of violence in the West Bank. Israel’s current strategy is to try and improve the Palestinians’ economic situation, in Gaza as well as the West Bank, as an alternative to any diplomatic breakthrough. It can only work if President Mahmoud Abbas’ entourage, as well as the Hamas leadership in Gaza, believe they have more to gain from internal stability in their own fiefdoms. It also depends on the co-operation of major Arab leaders, particularly the Saudis and the Egyptians.
The last year has seen an intensification of quiet security collaboration with the main Sunni Arab leaders who, like Netanyahu, see Iran as their greatest threat. But there have been warning-shots as well.
Last week, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution against the settlements, after the US unusually refused to veto the proposal. The Saudis have warned of dire implications if the US moves its embassy to Jerusalem. Mr Netanyahu has proved himself adept at balancing Israel’s interests and those of the dictators he engages with. He will need his balancing skills even more in 2017.