After the so-called “12-day war,” during which Israel and the United States struck the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities and eliminated a number of senior IRGC figures, Ali Larijani, head of the National Security Council, openly stated:
“Had we possessed a nuclear bomb, they would not have been able to kill us.”
From its very inception, the Islamic Republic’s primary ambition has been to wipe Israel off the world’s map. Some observers dismiss this as mere rhetoric, another slogan intended for domestic consumption or for galvanising support among Muslim communities worldwide.
Sadly, this assumption is dangerously wrong.
To understand the Islamic Republic, one must understand its governing principles, an issue often underestimated, particularly during negotiations. This misunderstanding has repeatedly led to catastrophic miscalculations.
According to the regime, Shia jurisprudence permits deception when it serves the advancement of Islam, mainly Shia Islam. The doctrine is known as khodeh, meaning deception or paving the way through lies and deceit. Khomeini himself admitted, after returning to Iran in 1979, that he had lied about his intentions in order to gain power. He stated openly: “Iran is a rich country, and its wealth must be used to spread Islam throughout the world.”
The Islamic Republic has pursued a two-pronged strategy to fulfil this vision.
First, the development of nuclear weapons to safeguard the regime’s survival, and to threaten the very existence of Israel.
In 2002–2003, major clandestine nuclear facilities were discovered in Natanz and Arak. Despite being a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the regime failed to declare these activities to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Western sanctions followed, and negotiations began in an attempt to contain the programme. Yet despite sustained efforts by the international community, the Islamic Republic continued its covert nuclear activities. Even after the 12-day war it reportedly retains approximately 400 kilograms of enriched uranium and, crucially, the technical know-how required to build a bomb.
The second part of the strategy was the creation of a Shia Crescent stretching from Iraq through Syria to Lebanon, with the ultimate aim of conquering Jerusalem.
The overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 removed a major obstacle. By assisting the West in defeating ISIS, Iran rapidly expanded its influence in Shia-majority Iraq. A dark joke circulated inside Iran at the time: “America went to war with Iraq, the Islamic Republic won.”
Qasem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force (the external arm of the IRGC), with the backing of Grand Ayatollah Sistani, helped form multiple militia groups, including Hashd al-Shaabi, all operating under the regime’s direct command. By 2017, the Islamic Republic controlled a vast proxy army stretching from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon, explicitly aimed at destroying Israel and capturing Jerusalem.
After October 7, Israel dismantled a significant portion of Iran’s proxy network: Hamas, Hezbollah, and to some extent the Houthis in Yemen. However, the Iraqi Shia militias remain largely intact and continue operating freely. There is no guarantee that the Islamic Republic will not rebuild a core network of proxies to launch another October 7-style attack.
With all this in mind, it is clear why the Islamic Republic persistently seeks negotiations with international powers. Talks offer the regime its greatest strategic advantage: time. Time to regroup, deceive, and advance its agenda.
Any agreement signed by the Islamic Republic can, and will be broken if it no longer serves the advancement of Shia Islam. In other words, such agreements are not worth the paper they are written on. A reality bluntly acknowledged by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during his presidency.
Another defining feature of the regime is its habitual denial of reality, coupled with exaggerated claims of strength. A popular Iranian joke captures this perfectly: “The Islamic Republic is a mouse that sees itself as a lion in the mirror.” In truth, the regime retreats only when confronted with credible force and unwavering resolve.
In conclusion, negotiations with the Islamic Republic are a waste of time for the West and a strategic gift to Tehran. Israel will be the real loser in any direct or indirect negotiation.
The brave Iranian people took to the streets with bare hands last month, confronting the regime after being promised that help was on the way. That help never came. Thousands were killed. According to reports by international human rights organisations, 43,000 were killed, 10,000 blinded, and 350,000 injured, with countless others imprisoned, tortured, or secretly executed. The Islamic Republic shamelessly blamed Israel and the United States, declaring “victory” over alleged foreign plots to disrupt peace.
The only path to lasting peace in the Middle East and beyond is to empower the Iranian people to overthrow their enemy from within.
Iran has a credible alternative, openly supported by people inside the country despite the mortal risk. Prince Reza Pahlavi, recognised by many Iranians, has presented a clear plan for a transitional government, after which the form of the state would be decided through a national referendum.
President Trump should negotiate with the Iranian opposition, not become a partner in the Islamic Republic’s crafty and destructive game of negotiations.
Sharan Tabari is a political analyst and a member of the central committee of 7 Aban Front, an Iranian opposition organisation
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