Then there’s the need for ongoing US supplies of weapons and spare parts, without which Israel won’t be able to fight in whatever conflicts follow an airstrike on Iran. With growing calls for arms embargoes, especially from Europe, the need to retain American support is even more existential than it was in the past.
Despite these challenges, however, there is now a rare and historic opportunity to strike a significant blow against Iran and derail its decades-long pursuit of a nuclear capability.
There are three main reasons why action makes sense now. First, Iran must be taught a lesson. For years its leaders have operated under the belief they can attack Israel and Western targets with impunity. At worst, the only retaliation they have faced – if there even was any – was attacks against Iran’s proxies. This sense of invulnerability has emboldened Iran to strike at will.
To prevent further attacks, Iran must be made to pay a price.
Second, the current state of Hezbollah and Hamas offers an opportunity. These groups were created as deterrents to any action against Iran’s nuclear facilities. But now, without downplaying the threat – particularly from Hezbollah rockets – both have been significantly weakened. Israel can manage both fronts.
If ever there was an optimal time to strike, it is now.
Yes, Iran will retaliate, but Hezbollah and Hamas are currently degraded, meaning the fallout from an Israeli strike would be limited.
This is a brief window – roughly one to two years – during which Israel can strike Iran without the looming threat of immediate Hezbollah retaliation. Beyond that timeframe, Hezbollah would likely rearm, forcing Israel to face a renewed conflict with its Lebanese foe following any action against Iran.
Finally, time is running out. Iran is on the verge of crossing the nuclear threshold. It has enough enriched uranium for several bombs, and all that’s left is to further enrich its stockpile to military-grade levels. While assembling a warhead will take time, simply crossing that threshold may deter future action.
Israel must always consider global reactions, especially from the US, its main ally. But if there’s one lesson from the past year and the October 7 attacks, it’s that sometimes Israel must prioritise its security above all else. Sometimes, the decision is just that simple.
