Israel needs a political strategy to free the hostages

Supporters of Netanyahu dismiss this claim. They point out that when Netanyahu insisted on a phased deal, the Hostage Families Forum criticized him for it. Now that he supports a comprehensive agreement, the same critics want him to return to the phased approach. For them, the opposition will never be satisfied.

The back-and-forth obscures the real problems that plague Israel today: the collapse of public trust in government and the widening rift between the country’s civilian and military leadership.

Israelis no longer trust their elected officials to act in the nation’s best interest. Polling by the Jewish People Policy Institute, as an example, underscores this grim reality: 60 per cent of Jewish Israelis say their confidence in the government is low, and an even starker 83 per cent of Israeli-Arabs say the same.

This lack of trust extends to the relationship between the government and the IDF brass. The chief of staff, for example, has been clear that Hamas has already been degraded to the point that it cannot repeat the atrocities of October 7. According to the army, the stated objectives of the war have largely been achieved. Yet the government continues to push the narrative of “total victory”, a slogan no longer connected to what is happening on the ground.

At the same time, it would be naive to believe that military pressure has nothing to do with it. Every serious hostage deal in this war has come only after Hamas felt cornered. The group will not concede anything without a credible threat of force and there is little doubt that preparations for the Gaza City offensive convinced Hamas to soften its demands.

Alongside this though is the fact that Netanyahu’s political calculations weigh heavily on his choices. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir admitted months ago that his threats to quit the coalition forced Netanyahu to delay negotiations. Other ministers have said the same.

A former member of Israel’s hostage negotiation team described this dynamic in an interview with Israel’s Channel 13 last week. Too often, he said, it seemed that the team was being dispatched to talks just to ease public pressure.

“There would be an announcement that the delegation was being sent to negotiate,” he explained, “but only after the public calmed down did we even discuss what mandate we were supposed to have.”

This description is a portrayal of Netanyahu’s career as prime minister, a tenure that is often defined by balancing contradictory interests, buying time and playing one side against another with the eventual hope that circumstances somehow shift in his favor.

This seems to be exactly what is happening now.

On one hand, the government threatens to expand the war with a new Gaza City offensive; on the other hand, it delays the call-up of reservists until next month, suggesting that it is waiting to see if negotiations succeed.

The problem is that while the stall tactics serve Netanyahu politically, they do nothing for the hostages. Nearly two years into the war, Israelis have to ask: are there really still critical Hamas targets that, if destroyed, the so-called “total victory” will be achieved?

The IDF does not believe so. What it does believe is that without a new governing structure in Gaza, Hamas will reassert itself once Israeli forces withdraw. Yet Netanyahu refuses to discuss any alternative that involves the Palestinian Authority, knowing such a step would collapse his coalition.

And here lies the real deadlock. Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have said they will not participate in a “day after” plan that excludes the PA. But Netanyahu’s survival depends on rejecting precisely that option. The result is an endless balancing act with no exit.

Time, however, is a luxury Israel does not have. Every week that passes increases the risk of mistakes that erode international support. The strike Monday on Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza, which killed more than 20 people including journalists, was one such blunder. The outcry was so severe that Netanyahu issued a rare statement of “deep regret.”

Israel’s one indispensable ally – President Donald Trump – said after the attack that he was “not happy” and predicted the war would end within weeks. Trump has the leverage over Netanyahu to force such an outcome. Netanyahu knows this, which is why Trump’s words carry just as much weight for him as the demands of his coalition partners.

For the hostages though, the only outcome that matters is whether they return home. What Israel now needs is a political strategy to secure the hostages’ release and to stabilize Gaza the day after. Israel cannot afford more hesitation. Not for the hostages, not for its international standing, and not for its own future.

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Yaakov Katz is a co-founder of the MEAD policy forum, and co-author of While Israel Slept