Israel can finally start to heal – but what comes next for Hamas in Gaza? - The Jewish Chronicle

On Monday, Israelis were finally able to breathe a little easier. It was as if a huge weight had been collectively lifted from the chest of a nation. Twenty men – ranging in age from their mid-forties to their twenties – walked out of Hamas’s terror dungeons in Gaza, back into the arms of their families and their country. The hostage crisis that began on October 7, 2023 was finally over.

While some of the bodies remained and Israel must do all it can to bring them home for burial, with the return of the 20 living hostages, the longest war in Israel’s history can now officially be declared over. The nation can finally begin the process of healing – something it was unable to do as long as hostages were still languishing in Hamas captivity. For two years, the nation’s collective heartbeat was trapped underground with them. Their return brings relief, but also a painful reminder of all that was lost.

And while the war might now be over one question still hangs in the air: who won? Israel or Hamas?

On one hand, the return of the hostages is a clear achievement. Two hundred and fifty one people were taken captive two years ago on that black Saturday, and now almost all are home. Many were murdered that day and their bodies stolen to Gaza; others were killed in captivity. The country will forever carry the guilt of not bringing them home alive. But the fact that most were rescued or released – through military pressure, negotiation, and persistence – is something that needs to be recognised.

From a military perspective, Israel can claim victory. Hamas is broken as a fighting force, a shadow of its former self. It no longer has the capability to threaten the Israeli home front like it once did. Its leadership has been decimated, its rocket arsenals depleted, and much of its tunnel infrastructure destroyed. Even if left alone, it will take years for Hamas to rebuild what Israel destroyed.

“The military pressure we exerted over the past two years, together with the complementary political moves, constitutes a victory over Hamas,” IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir declared on Sunday.

And yet, Hamas is not gone. Despite the government’s promises of “Total Victory” the organisation still exists. In recent days, it has begun to reassert control over parts of Gaza – rounding up suspected collaborators, confronting clans and militias that cooperated with Israel, and parading masked gunmen through the streets.

When thousands of men armed with AK-47s take to the streets, it is hard to see the decisive victory promised by the government. And it is easy to imagine how, if not stopped, this group could rebuild, rearm and re-emerge.

Israel has been here before. After Operation Guardian of the Walls in May 2021, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called that campaign “an exceptional success” and said Israel had achieved its goals. Maj Gen. Aharon Haliva, then head of the IDF Operations Directorate and on his way to becoming head of Military Intelligence, predicted that Hamas would be deterred for at least five years.

They were wrong. Hamas was not deterred, and the operation was far from a success. What happened was that Israel told itself a convenient narrative it wanted to believe instead of facing the truth. Hamas was hurt but not broken. It was still in power, still governing, still indoctrinating children and preparing for war. It was a story Israel wanted to tell itself because it was easier than confronting the depth of the problem.

This time, Israel cannot afford to fall back into complacency. Post-war narratives may be useful for morale, but they cannot be a substitute for reality. Hamas remains in Gaza. And while President Trump’s 20-point plan calls for its disarmament and the establishment of a new governing entity, the path to achieving that remains unclear.

Will Trump have the bandwidth and interest to stay engaged in Gaza’s reconstruction and political management? Or now that the hostages are home, will the issue fade from his immediate priorities? And what happens if, in a few weeks, Israeli drones spot armed Hamas men patrolling the streets of Gaza? Will Israel be free to strike, as it does in Lebanon, or will it need to coordinate with some new multinational force still being formed?

In the end, the success of what comes next will depend on the details – who manages Gaza, who polices it, and what the rules of engagement will be for Israel. These are not small matters. They will determine whether the victory endures or slowly collapses. But for now, there is no denying that Israel has won. October 7 was the greatest political, military and moral failure in Israel’s history. Yet the country proved that it could not be broken. It recovered, regrouped, and fought back. It defeated its enemies, took on Iran directly for the first time, and reshaped the Middle East. Israel demonstrated resilience – a nation that could lose so much and still fight back with unity, creativity, and moral purpose. The question now is whether Israel’s leadership will know how to transform this military success into a strategic one. Will it seize the opportunity created by the end of the war to normalise ties with Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Indonesia? Will it be willing to pay the price to establish a new order in Gaza that brings not just security to Israelis but also a future of stability and hope to Palestinians who have suffered under Hamas’s tyranny? This is where Israel has often fallen short – winning wars, only to lose the diplomatic opportunities that follow.

The temptation to declare victory and move on is powerful. But if Israel truly wants October 7 to mark not just the end of one era but the beginning of another, it must learn from its past mistakes.

That will be the true test of this moment. The war might be over, but history is still being written. Whether Israel’s leaders rise to it or not will determine if this victory endures – or fades, like those before it, into yet another cycle of missed opportunities.

The writer is a co-founder of the MEAD policy forum, a senior fellow at JPPI, and a former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post. His newest book is While Israel Slept

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Israel Gaza War