For years, Britain has been in denial about the existence of an alliance between Khamenei, Putin, and Xi. This is despite the fact that all three actors are working in tandem to undermine British democracy through a combination of disinformation, espionage, cyber-attacks and acts of transnational repression, not least against British parliamentarians. The bureaucrats in Whitehall, however, either flatly reject the idea of this troika or, at best, claim it is merely a tactical marriage of convenience.
But the relationship between Khamenei, Putin, and Xi runs far deeper than a casual “friends with benefits” fling. It is a marriage of ideas. Hostility toward liberal democracy and Western values is the glue that binds these otherwise unlikely bedfellows together. Their shared vision is centred on a collective clash with Western civilisation. Iran’s regime has perhaps articulated this most vividly, describing a new world order built on three poles, each in direct confrontation with Western civilisation: an Islamic pole led by Khamenei, a Russo-Slavic pole led by Putin, and a Chinese-Confucian pole led by Xi.
And while the British government continues to burry its head in the sand, the most lethal part of the Tehran-Moscow-Beijing partnership has only been deepening.
Earlier this year, Russia and Iran signed a 20-year comprehensive strategic agreement aimed at deepening military ties, including greater intelligence sharing and cooperation. This agreement with Moscow follows Tehran’s 25-year strategic agreement with Beijing – worth a staggering
$400 billion – that focusses on oil, sanctions evasions, missile technology, cyberwarfare and intelligence sharing.
And while civil servants may dismiss such agreements as either exaggerated or outright meaningless, the physical presence of an Iranian Shahed-136 drone in Parliament tells a very different story – one that cannot be denied.
But the worst is still to come. There is clear evidence that Russia, China, and Iran are stepping up their efforts to target Britain – increasingly coordinating in ways that go far beyond mere disinformation campaigns.
New intelligence reveals that Iranian regime proxies from Yemen and Iraq under the control of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have, for the first time, been deployed to support Putin’s war in Ukraine – a development that could herald a new era in the way both regimes conduct transnational repression and terrorism. Such collaboration would allow Tehran and Moscow to collectively wage attacks against Western interests while maintaining enough plausible deniability to avoid direct consequences.
Of course, China is less likely to directly get its hands dirty when it comes to hard confrontation. However, as the Shahed-136 exemplifies, it is Chinese technology and money that will ultimately bankroll much of this hostile activity against the West.
To counter this growing threat, Britain must act fast and decisively. First, the IRGC must be proscribed as a terrorist organisation to fully inhibit its ability to operate in Britain. The IRGC is stepping up its efforts to not only conduct acts of terror and espionage in the UK, but is also using the same methods as ISIS and Al-Qaeda to nurture home-grown radicalisation on British soil.
Next, China should immediately be added to the enhanced tier of the newly created Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (FIRS), designed to protect against hostile state activity in Britain. While Russia and Iran’s regime have been designated under FIRS’ enhanced tier, China – which equally engages in industrial scale espionage – has yet to be added. Finally, the UK must take action against illicit Iranian and Russian oil sales to China by targeting Tehran and Moscow’s “ghost fleet” (vessels with obscured ownership used to avoid sanctions) – a course of action that would disrupt the flow of funds that bankroll these hostile activities.
These measures would underline that Britain is serious about defending its national security and countering the Tehran-Moscow-Beijing axis. The truth is the government has been asleep at the wheel for far too long – now is the time to finally wake up.
Kasra Aarabi is the director for IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran and a British-Iranian expert on Iran’s military-security apparatus
