Become a Member
Stephen Pollard

ByStephen Pollard, Stephen Pollard

Opinion

Freakonomics on Rosh Hashanah

September 24, 2009 11:54
1 min read

The wonderful Freakonomics site offers this take on measuring Rosh Hashanah:

My wife and I were speculating on how long last Friday’s Rosh Hashanah
service would last. We both figured on two hours, but my wife said, “Services
always last longer than you expect.”

My first reaction was to agree, but then I realized that couldn’t be so; it
would imply that I didn’t have rational expectations. Having attended services
for so many years, my overestimates and underestimates of their duration should
balance out: on average, I should correctly estimate their duration.

It’s possible that I might make mistakes if the world changed; and perhaps
our new rabbi goes longer than his predecessor. But even with that change, after
a few years I should estimate correctly on average. In fact, taking Friday and
Saturday together, I was correct: Friday night lasted only one and a half hours,
but Saturday’s service lasted half an hour longer than I expected.