Dutch voters snub parties that tried to make Gaza the central issue

But crowds in the streets do not an election victory make – as Wednesday night’s results demonstrated. Instead of a landslide victory with Timmermans cruising to the prime-minister’s office, Green Left-Labour dropped from 25 to 20. It was the worst result for the two combined parties in history. Timmermans didn’t even wait for the votes to be counted and resigned as party leader right after the first exit poll had come out.

What happened? Didn’t a poll in September show that half of the Dutch voters considered Gaza an important issue when deciding what party to vote for? Yes, but many doubted the validity of that poll, since it was conducted by Pax and The Rights Forum, two rabidly anti-Israeli organisations. On Wednesday night, voters were asked which issues had influenced their decision. Asylum and immigration, housing and health care were the top contenders, and to a lesser extent education, crime and climate change. The war in Gaza wasn’t mentioned in any of the analyses by pundits on Dutch television.

Of course the cease-fire took a lot of wind out of the left’s sails, and led to panic during the campaign. The six most left-wing parties even voted against a motion to support President Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza. Peace breaking out clearly wasn’t what “pro-Palestinian” politicians and activists had in mind.

So what happens next? The formation of Dutch governments is a notoriously long process, not helped by the extreme fragmentation in parliament. No less than fifteen parties will take their seats in the new Lower House, with the two largest – Wilders’s PVV and the centre-left liberals of D66 – each winning a mere 16 per cent of the vote. A coalition government will therefore consist of at least four parties to reach the necessary 76 seats for a majority.

The ball is in D66’s court, since most parties have excluded forming a coalition with Wilders. The 38-year-old, openly gay leader of D66, Rob Jetten, now faces a game of chicken with Dilan Yeşilgöz, the leader of the centre-right VVD. The daughter of Turkish immigrants, Yeşilgöz has long been one of parliament’s most outspoken voices against anti-Semitism – even before its explosion after October 7, 2023.

Jetten reiterated this week that he wants what he calls a centrist government with the VVD, the Christian-Democratic CDA and the Green Left-Labour alliance. That would leave Yeşilgöz as the only more or less reliable ally of Israeli and Dutch-Jewish interests. The Christian-Democrats have become less pro-Israel than in the past, while D66 has been a part of the anti-Israel block, albeit not as radical as Timmermans’ Green Left-Labour alliance.

Yeşilgöz, however, has explicitly ruled out governing with the left. She has a point: The centre-right and right-wing parties together form by far the largest block in the Dutch parliament. Many see the idea of a government excluding all five parties to the right of the VVD – with a combined total of 49 seats – as a slap in the face to the Dutch voter. For Yeşilgöz and her centre-right VVD joining a left-leaning coalition could amount to political suicide.

The question now is: who flinches first? Odds are it will be Jetten. Opposition within his D66 to a coalition with right-wing parties is far weaker than the backlash Yeşilgöz would face within her own ranks if she were to join the GreenLeft-Labour bloc. Also, the right can offer Jetten a historic prize: the chance to become the youngest – and the first openly gay – Dutch prime minister. All he has to do is drop the left and choose a couple of the smaller right-wing parties, like anti-immigration JA21 or the farmer party BBB.

Both these parties are staunchly pro-Israel and at the forefront of the fight against anti-Semitism in The Netherlands. At the same time a group of notable (ex-)Labour party members, led by Dutch-Jewish former parliamentarian Rob Oudkerk, is planning a coup against the merger with the GreenLeft. They want a Labour Party modelled on Mette Frederiksen Social Democrats in Denmark. That would mean tougher policies on immigration and integration, with less emphasis on “woke” causes and anti-Zionism.

All in all, Dutch Jews and friends of Israel can breathe a sigh of relief – things could have been much worse.

Bart Schut is a Dutch journalist