Bye bye whatever your name was

I regard Nick Clegg as much of a certainty to replace Ming as Blair was to succeed John Smith in 1994.

I can't speak with knowledge about the LibDem electorate's propensity to do the sensible thing, but if they have any sense that indeed is what they'll do.

But this needs to be kept in proportion. The LibDems are essentially an irrelevance, and althought they may bob up and down in the polls a bit, they will always be that. Where they can make a difference is as Daniel Finkelstein observes:

although Tories have very big disagreements with Clegg, he talks openly about the problems of big government, state interference and monopolies in health and education. His election would help to shift the centre of gravity in the political debate towards the freedom loving right. This would be a very big gain indeed.

And if the LibDems act as a protest vehicle for Labour voters who can't quite stomach Cameron, that is all to the Tories' good.

I'll have more to say about this later in the week, when I'll link to a column on it.