Israel is arming the full spectrum of anti-Hamas resistance in Gaza – and the terror group looks rattled

This represents a significant attempt to reshape the local political-security landscape ahead of any cessation of hostilities with Hamas.

Brigadier General (ret) Hanan Geffen, a former commander of the IDF’s elite Unit 8200 intelligence unit, told JNS that Israel was trying to learn and apply lessons from past, negative experiences with setting up armed groups.

“We have had a bad experience over the years with groups we tried to establish under Israeli auspices,” Geffen said.

“The very fact of Israeli sponsorship causes the Palestinian public to be wary and not accept them, to present them as traitors, and therefore, these groups have been condemned in various ways over the years. So history is not encouraging.”

Despite this, Geffen said he believed that the current situation in the coastal enclave was unprecedented and may offer a new opportunity – rooted in the specific demographics of Gaza.

He said that the Strip was composed of three main populations: the original residents; Bedouin tribes who arrived from Sinai; and a very large population of refugees from 1948 who came to dominate Gaza.

“The descendants of refugees from the camps took over the Strip. In the end, Hamas took power,” Geffen said.

“If we reach a situation where Hamas – that is, the refugees, in the Gazan translation – gets to a point where they understand that they caused a terrible disaster for Gaza, for two million people who do not see reconstruction on the horizon, if they see this and it penetrates their consciousness, then groups like Abu Shabab and others who say ‘we are coming to save you from the catastrophe’ may establish a base to exist and may survive,” he said.

“From Israel’s perspective, this is currently the preferred solution, because nobody wants Hamas, and nobody wants the [Palestinian] Authority because the Authority itself is a completely irrelevant body that will not contribute anything.”

A key tool for empowering these new groups, he suggested, will be the massive reconstruction effort Gaza will require. By giving these new clan leaders control over local construction companies, labor recruitment, and security for building sites, Israel and its international partners could help create a new, organic power base that provides tangible benefits to the population, directly challenging Hamas’s political control, he argued. This effort to cultivate local alternatives to Hamas could be backed and financed by moderate Gulf states.

In a July 6 interview with Kan News, Yasser Abu Shabab stated that his Gaza militia had received weapons from Israel to stand up to Hamas, adding, “We tasted the bitterness and injustice that was caused to us by Hamas, and we took it upon ourselves to deal with this aggression.”

He added that his organisation moved with ease in Rafah and was located in a zone under full IDF control.

Abu Shabab described Hamas as “an inflated balloon. Hamas is fighting for its life. It’s going to a deal that is its last path towards the end of its existence, the end of the organization from a moral and physical perspective. Physically, I will pursue them.”

Geffen interpreted this interview as a message from Abu Shabab to both Hamas and to Gazans that he was receiving IDF protection. “This means that if there is a threat to me, the IDF, fighter jets, then someone will come to protect me. This seems to be what he is saying, because he is speaking in a very explicit and open manner.”

Geffen also added that there may be several other groups being supported by Israel in a hidden manner, potentially through the Shin Bet or the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories.

“These are processes. We see the beginning of them. We saw a report about the IDF rescuing a cell of Gazans from a home, including one taken to the hospital. These appear to be people activated by the IDF or the Shin Bet. In other words, we can assess that there are various ways to integrate or cooperate with such activities, both through combat and through reconstructions.”

While Israel sees this as a path forward, the Palestinian Authority views it as a scenario in which it is excluded from the future of the Gaza Strip.

Jibril Rajoub, the secretary-general of Fatah's Central Committee, stated in a July 13 interview with an Egyptian television channel that any ceasefire that does not include a unified Palestinian leadership would be a “recipe for civil war.”

He accused Israel of “establishing and arming militias for the day after the war,” and claimed that a future Palestinian state must be based on “one authority, one gun, one law, one police officer” under the Palestinian Authority. Yet the gap between Rajoub’s comments and the reality in Gaza could not be greater.

Hamas, for its part, is treating the rival clans and militias as a direct threat. On July 3, Hamas issued a 10-day ultimatum, ordering Yasser Abu Shabab to surrender and face trial for treason.

Joe Truzman, a senior research analyst at the Washington DC-based Foundation for Defence of Democracies’ Long War Journal, said: “Israel arming clans has not created enough pressure on Hamas to create a crisis for the group. While significantly degraded, Hamas continues to be the dominant organization in Gaza. … The most pressing concern for Hamas is that several armed opposition groups will grow and become a considerable fighting force.”

Ahmad Sharawi, a research analyst at FDD, added that Hamas will leverage the "collaborator" label to justify its actions.

"Palestinian media has already turned against these individuals, labeling them as traitors and collaborators. Hamas, in turn, often justifies its crackdown on local dissidents by framing them as part of this alleged betrayal,” he said.