An end to Israel's turmoil? - The Jewish Chronicle

Israel's 2015 will be defined by the March 17 election and the formation of a new government, which will not be completed before May. That we have another election, after just two years, is in part a symptom of Israel's deepest challenge: the conflicting visions within its society about its very character, in particular where to balance between being the nation-state of the Jewish people, and the state of all its citizens. This question lurks behind internal debates on both socio-economic and diplomatic issues.

That Israel's weak coalitions struggle to take long-term decisions addressing the needs of its society as a whole, is not simply due to its electoral system. It is because Israel is a still a young country, with a diverse population, which is yet to successfully define a common vision for a shared society. Politicians of all backgrounds contribute to this failure with populist stances appealing to the prejudices of their own sectors.

This year's election may only exacerbate this. Larger parties, vying for volatile centre ground voters, will emphasise the capacity of their leaders to cope with the issues felt most widely and immediately: national security and the cost of living. Meanwhile, smaller parties will gravitate to the narrow interests of their base. The centre-left will accuse the right of extremism which polarises Israel and isolates it internationally. The right will accuse the centre-left of naivety and weakness in the face of regional threats and international pressure.

As this continues, the big decisions wait a little longer.

Foremost in the minds of many outside Israel is the Palestinian issue. The Palestinians will not allow themselves to be ignored - whether it is the PA, who will force it on to the international agenda; the armed groups in the Gaza Strip, which remains close to boiling point; or the restive populations of East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

Painful: The 2015 election in Israel may ease violent clashes

Should Netanyahu return to power, the stalemate is likely to continue and, with it, the friction in relations with the US and Europe, especially over settlement construction, giving ammunition to the anti-Zionist BDS movement. A change of Prime Minister will create the chance for a reset, especially if Netanyahu is replaced by a figure from the centre-left, such as Isaac Herzog, and if pro-settlement parties are excluded from the coalition.

But even a centre-left government will face the dilemma articulated by Netanyahu: how to end Israel's control over the Palestinians without bringing the threat of Islamist violence closer to Israel's population centres. Regional security threats - whether Iran's support for terrorism and pursuit of nuclear weapons, or the Sunni extremists led or inspired by Isis - are not an invention of the Israeli right.

Furthermore, Netanyahu's demands for Palestinian recognition of Israel as the Jewish nation state in a two-state agreement, and an Israeli presence on the Jordan River, are unlikely to be dropped by a centre-left government. And any attempt to curb or roll back the settlement enterprise, with or without the Palestinians' agreement, will meet with tough internal resistance.

Less noticed outside of Israel but equally significant in the long-run, are myriad societal challenges within the Green Line. The educational, economic and social gaps between the mainstream and two very different minority sectors - Israeli Arabs and Charedim - threaten Israel's prosperity and social cohesion. Then there is the specific problem of unresolved land claims and chronic underdevelopment for rapidly expanding Bedouin communities in the Negev.

Though there are some positive trends, with modest narrowing of educational gaps, and more Arabs and Charedim entering the workforce, a vast amount of work is required of policymakers. The heart of this must be a fundamental reshaping of the relationship between the state and its marginalised sectors.

Before collapsing in acrimony, the last government managed one potentially game-changing move, with legislation to end the exemption of ultra-Orthodox men from the military. It ultimately shelved efforts to transform the situation of the Negev Bedouin. Attempts to address the Palestinian issue were undermined by pro-settlement influence within the coalition, coupled with Palestinian intransigence.

Can the next government do better? It is likely to be another complex coalition without a truly dominant player.

Any major strategic decision will run up against opposition from those resistant to a change in the status quo.

The challenges are immense. But so, too, is Israel's capacity to overcome them. It is a society with exceptional human capital, a dynamic "start-up" spirit, an open political culture, and a young and growing population.

Moreover, most Jews and Arabs of all stripes, recognise the stake they have in the stability and prosperity of the society as a whole. The crises and threats afflicting Israel's neighbours, and indeed many developed countries, are a reminder of just how good it is to live in Israel, despite its challenges. This should be a source of hope for all Israelis, and its friends around the world.