Whatever one thinks of Trump or the Democrats, one thing is clear from the midterms: the US Constitution is working exactly as it should. Voters decided that they had had enough of the Donald Trump Show, and decided to send a very loud message to that effect.
It would be ridiculous not to take these results at face value as a massive win for the Democrats. From moderates such as James Talarico, becoming the first from his party to be elected as a senator in Texas since 1988, and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire through to the Democratic Socialists of America wing, they were rampant. Before the vote commentators suggested they would struggle to win the Senate, needing four new seats to do so. As I write they have already won seven.
But it would be equally ridiculous to take the results as a full-on embrace of the Democrats. In the country of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. Once voters decided to give Trump a kicking they had nowhere else to place their x. And the very fact that those Democrats elected veer so wildly in their views – it’s almost ridiculous that the new Senator for Michigan, Abdul el-Sayed, is in the same party as Talarico and Pappas – shows that it is wrong to see the results as some kind of swing to the left. It’s a swing against Trump.
As for what this means for Israel and the Jews…not the least worrisome aspect is that the likes of el-Sayed now has a national platform from which to spew his venom.
His campaign – in which he was joined by Hasan Piker – was dogged by alleged association with the Muslim Brotherhood. He first denied any connection to the Brotherhood, which he maintains. Then he unambiguously denied that any of his family had any connection, despite the emergence of a series of tweets which suggest that a number of family members, including his mother, have been active in the Islamist group.
In a 2012 post, for example, his half-sister Eman Abdelhadi, a professor at The University of Chicago, wrote: “Had an amazing talk with my mom about her activism in the Muslim Brotherhood during the early 70s while she was in college #respect.” In another 2012 post she wrote: “My family has long been MB, but I’ve always felt that it has navigated the political sphere poorly/destructively.” And in a post the following year, she wrote: “Praying for all my family that supports the #MB in #Egypt. Lie low, stay safe.”
A group supporting el-Sayed put out the single most antisemitic ad in US history, blaming Israel for grocery prices and almost every ill in the US. el-Sayed pointedly refused to condemn it.
The DSA wing of the Democrats may be a minority, but among younger activists it is the lifeblood of the party. And its anti-Israel obsession has taken hold of the Democrat centre. Trump is now going to be tied up in investigations and rows with Congress, and the traditional route for a President battling Congress is to turn to foreign affairs. But Trump has already done that – indeed the Iran war is one of the reasons voters have tired of Trump. A further problem is that anything that Congress can block, it will do.
Imagine, for example, that the man who wants to leave peace making as his legacy (hence his fixation on the Nobel Prize) manages to lure the Saudis into the Abraham Accords. On any reading that would be a seismic achievement, and is perfectly possible. But it would likely need various financial packages. The chances of the Democrats approving such a deal are close to zero.
Some commentators have argued that this would change if Benjamin Netanyahu was removed from the equation. Such a view wholly misunderstands the nature of DSA loathing of Israel, in which the moderates acquiesce. It would make no difference if Israel was led by Gadi Eisenkot, Gal Gadot or a hologram of Topol.
One area worth focusing on is the American annual $3.3 billion support for Israel, which Trump said yesterday (while voters were at the polling stations) would end this year. This isn’t as straightforward as it seems. For one thing, Netanyahu has been suggesting this for a while, arguing that it would free Israel strategically. The real issue isn’t the end of this aid, it’s what – if anything – replaces it. Trump said arms sales, while Netanyahu (and others) have regarded a form of extended R&D cooperation as more beneficial both to Israel and the US. The issue, of course, is again the idea that the new Congress would approve any such deal.
Whatever happens next, we are in for a rough ride. Our more accurately, an even rougher ride.
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