After the Abraham Accords, the next miracle: a Middle East NATO?

Some Israelis see the Abraham Accords as even more significant than what was agreed years earlier between Jerusalem and Cairo and later with Amman. Those agreements were termed a Cold Peace. Ironically, in Jordan and Egypt opposition to peace with Israel remains as strong as it has ever been. What was previously agreed between the governments has never been accepted by public opinion on the streets of Cairo and Amman.

The opposite is true where the UAE and Bahrain are concerned. In both, there is evidence of real engagement. Mutual visits of ordinary civilians and government officials take place almost daily. Unlike in Amman and Cairo, Jews feel safe walking on the streets of cities like Manama and Dubai and Abu Dhabi. There is no need to hide the kippa or avoid celebrating Jewish holidays like the lighting of candles at Chanukah.

Likewise, the citizens of the UAE and Bahrain are unafraid to use social media to declare their love for Israel and the Jewish people. Hence the scenes of Arabs in the traditional dish-dashas singing the Israeli national anthem, Hatikvah, wrapping themselves in the Israeli flag and greeting Jews in Hebrew during the Jewish holidays.

Israeli hopes are now focused on how Biden can expand the Accords to include Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have refused to publicly commit to reaching an agreement with Israel, but there has been ample speculation about a secret love affair between Riyadh and Jerusalem going back several years.

Fear of Iran has once again brought these two countries closer, inspired at least partly by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s determination not to succumb to Iran. The controversial Saudi Crown Prince (known as MBS) has been heavily criticised for his alleged role in the execution of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Now, after three years of being ostracised, he is in the process of being welcomed back into the international community.

World leaders are once again seeking to do business with him. Even Biden, formerly an open critic, is scheduled to meet him in the presence of other Saudi royals during the regional visit. The Prince is widely believed to advocate normalisation with Israel. Earlier this year, he was quoted by the official Saudi Press Agency as saying: “We do not view Israel as an enemy, but rather as a potential ally in the many interests that we can pursue together, but some issues must be resolved before we can reach that.”

Yet he has also cautioned against going too far too quickly, not least because an older generation of Saudis, including his ageing father King Salman, still remain faithful to what they believe is the Palestinian cause. For his part, as the de facto ruler of the kingdom, he is also aware how something dramatic needs to be done to build upon his international makeover.

Widely understood is the belief that any defence pact incorporating both Israel and Arab governments has his personal support. Only last month MBS visited Egypt, Jordan and Turkey as part of an attempt to rally support for what is being described in the Arab and Israeli media as a ‘Middle East Nato’.

Following MBS’s meeting with King Abdullah of Jordan, the two leaders issued a joint statement in which they said they support efforts to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. One day after meeting MBS, Abdullah told a US news outlet how he fully supported a new regional security alliance. “I would be one of the first…to support a Middle East Nato,” he told CNBC. Israel was not specifically mentioned, to avoid any negative public responses on Arab streets. All eyes are now on Biden’s visit. If he manages to get the Saudis on board, more Arab states may follow suit and possibly join the normalisation process with Israel.

Meanwhile, all these diplomatic efforts ahead of Biden’s visit are monitored closely by Iran and proxies such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Inspired by their mentors in Tehran, the leaders of these terrorist groups have held meetings in Lebanon to discuss ways of foiling the emerging security infrastructure, Their spokesmen condemn it as an “American Zionist scheme” aimed at preparing for the “integration” of Israel in the region.

“The main purpose of Biden’s Middle East trip next month is to obliterate the Palestinian cause and expand the influence of the Zionist regime,” Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh told the Iranian news outlet PressTV. During a recent meeting between Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hizbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, the two sides agreed to increase co-operation to strengthen “the axis of resistance” in the region and warned Arabs to avoid normalising ties with Israel. Such statements are viewed in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf as explicit threats, combined with an attempt to sabotage Biden’s visit. Equally, such warnings only serve to strengthen the resolve of the Saudis and their Gulf allies to do whatever is needed to defend themselves. They drive them closer to Israel in a joint fight against a common enemy.

A new era is emerging where Israel is seen as a vital partner in maintaining regional stability and security against Iran’s expansionist ambitions. So far the Iranians have a military and political presence in four Arab countries (Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon) inflaming internal tensions and stoking civil wars. Now a fear of future civil wars, fuelled by Iran, drives the Saudis and Gulf governments to forge an enduring new alliance with Jerusalem.

Shyam Bhatia is a Middle East correspondent and author of ‘Nuclear Rivals In The Middle East’